October 6, 2004
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Wednesday October 06, 2004
Threat of future climate shift looms
Scientists predict a 10 to 15 degree temperature increase in next century
Napa Valley is ideal for growing wine grapes. Each inch of rolling hill is covered in mottled vines turning red, orange and yellow for fall. The cool morning fog cover spills in from the coast.
But wine lovers beware - by the end of the century your coveted Napa Valley merlot may be a lot more expensive, and the rolling hills may look more like dry grassland.
A study by 19 scientists predicts that California's temperatures will rise 10 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, which could have devastating consequences for the wine grape and vegetable industries.
The report, published online Aug. 16 by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, offers two detailed projections of the California climate shift. The first scenario is based on current greenhouse gas emissions and the second is based on lower emission levels.
The climate models predict that if the state continues to produce high levels of green-house gas emissions, the climate shift could reduce California's snow pack by up to 89 percent, create massive water shortages, and reduce the quality and variety of vegetables and wine grapes by the end of the century.
UC Davis Vegetable Crops professor Arnold Bloom said increased temperatures will cause a deluge of rain from higher elevations to run off instead of slowly melting from snow packs through the spring. Reservoirs would be depleted, creating a drastic water shortage for agriculture and the public. The report also predicts heat-related deaths could increase by five to seven times in the Los Angeles area as temperatures soar during summer months.
A climate shift of this nature would also impact when and where vegetables could be produced in California. With a world-famous viticulture and agricultural program, UCD is in a delicate position.
While most agree that global warming is a real and pressing issue, little action is being taken by people involved in the vegetable and wine grape industries.
"In my opinion, those who are planning for these climate changes now are not being taken seriously by the industry as a whole, although maybe they should," said Nate Weis, president of Davis Enology and Viticulture Organization, in an e-mail.
At UCD, there also appears to be a lack of organized effort in the viticulture and vegetable departments to fight for improvements in global warming.
"It would be nice as these issues become more prominent for there to be more of an emphasis on global change at UC Davis," Bloom said.
Taking action is important because the repercussions of a 10 to 15 degree temperature increase could be devastating to agriculture and wine grapes in particular.
There will be a shift in timing and locations of where things are grown in California, and obtaining water will be more crucial, Bloom said. Some places that are open to agriculture now may not be open in the future.
The report said that excessively high temperatures could cause wine grapes to ripen one to two months earlier than usual, which would result in poorer grape quality.
"My understanding is that it could be devastating for quality-oriented wine regions such as Napa and Sonoma," Weis said. "A difference of 10 degrees would have severe implications for wine quality."
Mark Matthews, UCD Viticulture and Encology professor, said the wine grape industry is very important to California's economy. It is usually ranked the number-one cash crop in California, and is estimated to earn $1 billion annually, Matthews said.
However, both Bloom and Matthews questioned the accuracy of the climate models' projections and found it difficult to predict the repercussions on wine grape and vegetable industries based on the data.
"It's not a controlled experiment," Bloom said. "Instead of a large sample, we have a sample size of one. How do you make decisions on data that is very uncertain?"
However, researchers believe that climate models are the best way to foresee future climate shifts. By testing the model's ability to predict temperature change over the last 25 to 50 years and by using a combination of models, researchers said they feel confident that their projections are fairly accurate.
"I think the information the model provides is going to be more believable than anything else," said Richard Grotjahn, UCD Land, Air and Water Resources professor. "That's not saying the model is 100 percent accurate.there might be variations, but it's still the best tool to understand what might be the consequences of emissions. It's actually surprising how well they do."
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Posted on Tue, Oct. 05, 2004
Seafood: Going, going . . .
ALLOWABLE CATCH NEEDS TO BE LOWERED OR NOTHING WILL BE LEFT
It may have escaped your notice that October is Seafood Month. It would have escaped ours, as well, had it not coincided with the final report from the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy.
Together, the two add up to this: Seafood month could someday become Seafood Nostalgia Month.
Some regions and some species have been so exhaustively fished that there is hardly anything left to catch. The cod fishery in the North Atlantic has collapsed. Rock fish off the West Coast, often called Pacific red snapper or Pacific rock cod, have been reduced to less than 10 percent of their historic populations.
Overfishing isn't the only villain. Pollution washing into the ocean has created ``dead zones'' in bays and estuaries. But overfishing is more easily corrected.
The allowable catch should be lowered, and fishing techniques should change to lessen ``bycatch,'' the unwanted fish and other marine life hauled up in nets and then thrown away.
Management of fisheries is in the hands of eight regional councils that decide how many fish can be caught and who gets to catch them. The fishing industry, commercial and recreational, dominates the councils.
A bill in Congress, the Fisheries Management Reform Act, H.R. 4706, would be a start toward addressing these problems by altering the makeup and procedures of the councils. It follows recommendations of the ocean commission and a separate, but similar, report from the Pew Foundation.
Under the bill:
• An independent, scientific panel would assess fish populations and decide what level of catch a fishery could sustain.
• Council members would be chosen from varied backgrounds, including conservation groups, to reduce fishing industry dominance.
• Members would no longer be exempt from federal conflict-of-interest laws.
The Commission on Ocean Policy has given Congress a clear warning. If management of fisheries continues on its present course, there will be fewer and fewer fisheries to manage.
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