Month: April 2006

  • This Morning


    By Raymond Carver


     


    This morning was something. A little snow
    lay on the ground. The sun floated in a clear
    blue sky. The sea was blue, and blue-green,
    as far as the eye could see.
    Scarcely a ripple. Calm. I dressed and went
    for a walk — determined not to return
    until I took in what Nature had to offer.
    I passed close to some old, bent-over trees.
    Crossed a field strewn with rocks
    where snow had drifted. Kept going
    until I reached the bluff.
    Where I gazed at the sea, and the sky, and
    the gulls wheeling over the white beach
    far below. All lovely. All bathed in a pure
    cold light. But, as usual, my thoughts
    began to wander. I had to will
    myself to see what I was seeing
    and nothing else. I had to tell myself this is what
    mattered, not the other. (And I did see it,
    for a minute or two!) For a minute or two
    it crowded out the usual musings on
    what was right, and what was wrong — duty,
    tender memories, thoughts of death, how I should treat
    with my former wife. All the things
    I hoped would go away this morning.
    The stuff I live with every day. What
    I’ve trampled on in order to stay alive.
    But for a minute or two I did forget
    myself and everything else. I know I did.
    For when I turned back i didn’t know
    where I was. Until some birds rose up
    from the gnarled trees. And flew
    in the direction I needed to be going.


     


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  • The Projectile

    By Raymond Carver


    We sipped tea. Politely musing
    on possible reasons for the success
    of my books in your country. Slipped
    into talk of pain and humiliation
    you find occurring, and reoccurring,
    in my stories. And that element
    of sheer chance. How all this translates
    in terms of sales.
    I looked into a corner of the room.
    And for a minute I was 16 again,
    careening around in the snow
    in a ’50 Dodge sedan with five or six
    bozos. Giving the finger
    to some other bozos, who yelled and pelted
    our car with snowballs, gravel, old
    tree branches. We spun away, shouting.
    And we were going to leave it at that.
    But my window was down three inches.
    Only three inches. I hollered out
    one last obscenity. ANd saw this guy
    wind up to throw. From this vantage,
    now, I imagine I see it coming. See it
    speeding through the air while I watch,
    like those soldiers in the first part
    of the last century watched canisters
    of shot fly in their direction
    while they stood, unable to move
    for the dread fascination of it.
    But I didn’t see it. I’d already turned
    my head to laugh with my pals.
    When something slammed into the side
    of my head so hard it broke my eardrum and fell
    in my lap, intact. A ball of packed ice
    and snow. The pain was stupendous.
    And the humiliation.
    It was awful when I began to weep
    in front of those tough guys while they
    cried, Dumb luck. Freak accident.
    A chance in a million!

    The guy who threw it, he had to be amazed
    and proud of himself while he took
    the shouts and backslaps of the others.
    He must have wiped his hands on his pants.
    And messed around a bit more
    before going home for supper. He grew up
    to have his share of setbacks and got lost
    in his life, same as I got lost in mine.
    He never gave that afternoon
    another thought. And why should he?
    So much else to think about always.
    Why remember that stupid car sliding
    down the road, then turning the corner
    and disappearing?
    We politely raise our teacups in the room.
    A room that for a minute something else entered.


     


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  • NASA puts its weight behind warming signs


    Press release on ice sheet survey follows internal changes









    IMAGE: GREENLAND MAP SHOWING ICE CHANGES
    NASA / GSFC

    Satellite data used in a new survey of ice sheets have led to maps like this one showing areas in Greenland where the ice has thickened in the center while thinning along the edges.






    By Miguel Llanos

    Reporter

    MSNBC

    Updated: 10:10 a.m. ET March 13, 2006





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    Miguel Llanos

    Reporter



     





    Following two recent studies on changes to Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, NASA is touting a survey that it says confirms “climate warming is changing how much water remains locked in Earth’s largest storehouses of ice and snow.”


    In a press release for the survey, NASA directly tied the changes to warming and described the survey as “the most comprehensive” ever in both regions.


    That stand can in part be explained by lead author Jay Zwally’s warning.

    “If the trends we’re seeing continue and climate warming continues as predicted, the polar ice sheets could change dramatically,” he said in the press release last Wednesday. “The Greenland ice sheet could be facing an irreversible decline by the end of the century.”


    But Zwally, a scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., told MSNBC.com that the press release also follows an internal NASA change that seems to be taking place to allow scientists greater freedom.


    Complaint made a difference?
    A change in policy appears to be occurring after NASA scientist Jim Hansen complained about being silenced because of the Bush administration’s opposition to mandatory curbs on greenhouse gases that many scientists tie to global warming.


    “A few months ago this press release might have been seriously edited or not approved,” Zwally said.





    Based on satellite mapping of ice sheets and published in the Journal of Glaciology, the survey validated computer models projecting impacts on Earth from global warming.

    “The survey documented for the first time extensive thinning of the West Antarctic ice shelves, an increase in snowfall in the interior of Greenland and thinning at the edges,” NASA said in the press release. “All are signs of a warming climate predicted by computer models.”


    The press release followed the two Antarctica and Greenland studies, which included NASA research. And while those received considerable attention because of data that showed rapid changes in the ice, the press releases sent out with them did not emphasize global warming.


    Warming ‘has really just started’
    In the most recent press release, NASA did not directly tie the warming to humans and the burning of fossil fuels, which emits carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas.


    But Zwally noted that the predicted climate warming cited in the press release is caused by manmade emissions. A natural warming cycle is technically possible, he said, but not likely given how closely the warming and models track.


    Zwally said he expects to have even stronger satellite data within a year.


    “We’re seeing the early signs of changes in the ice sheets,” he added. “The climate warming from greenhouse gases has really just started.”








    INTERACTIVE







    Launch

    Melting mountains
    Data shows five areas of concern









    Environment slide show  

      







    Baby Seal Hunt in Canada
    Getty Images


    Fate sealed?
    Click Launch to view images from the controversy over Canada’s annual commercial seal hunt.














    © 2006 MSNBC Interactive




  • Time In Depth
    The Broken Promise

    It was part of the American Dream, a pledge made by corporations to their workers: for your decades of toil, you will be assured of retirement benefits like a pension and health care. Now more and more companies are walking away from that promise, leaving millions of Americans at risk of an impoverished retirement. How can this be legal? A TIME investigation looks at how Congress let it happen and the widespread social insecurity it’s causing


    Sunday, Oct. 23, 2005

    The little shed behind Joy Whitehouse’s modest home is filled with aluminum cans–soda cans, soup cans and vegetable cans–that she collects from neighbors or finds during her periodic expeditions along the roadside. Two times a month, she takes them to a recycler, who pays her as much as $30 for her harvest of castoffs. When your fixed income is $942 a month, an extra $30 here and there makes a big difference. After paying rent, utilities and insurance, Whitehouse is left with less than $40 a week to cover everything else. So the money from cans helps pay medical bills for the cancer and chronic lung disease she has been battling for years, as well as food expenses. “I eat a lot of soup,” says the tiny, spirited 69-year-old, who lives in Majestic Meadows, a mobile-home park for senior citizens near Salt Lake City, Utah.


    Whitehouse never envisioned spending her later years this way. She and her husband Alva Don raised four children. In the 1980s they lived in Montana, where he earned a good living as a long-haul truck driver for Pacific Intermountain Express. But in 1986 he was killed on the job in a highway accident attributed to faulty maintenance on his truck, as his company struggled to survive the cutthroat pricing of congressionally ordered deregulation. After her husband’s death, Whitehouse knew the future would be tough, but she was confident in her economic survival. After all, the company had promised her a death benefit of $598 every two weeks for the rest of her life–a commitment she had in writing, one that was a matter of law.


    She received the benefit payments until October 1990, when the check bounced. A corporate-takeover artist, later sent to prison for ripping off a pension fund and other financial improprieties, had stripped down the business and forced it into the U.S. bankruptcy court. There the obligation was erased, thanks to congressional legislation that gives employers the right to walk away from agreements with their employees. To support herself, Whitehouse had already sold the couple’s Montana home and moved to the Salt Lake City area, where she had family and friends. With her savings running out, she applied early (at a reduced rate) for her husband’s Social Security. She needed every penny. For health reasons, she couldn’t work. She had undergone a double mastectomy. An earlier cancer of the uterus had eaten away at her stomach muscle so that a metal plate and artificial bladder were installed. Her children and other relatives offered to help, but Whitehouse is fiercely self-sufficient. Friends and neighbors pitch in to fill her shed with aluminum. “You put your pride in your pocket, and you learn to help yourself,” she says. “I save cans.”


    Through no fault of her own, Whitehouse had found herself thrust into the ranks of workers and their spouses–previously invisible but now fast growing–who believed the corporate promises about retirement and health care, often affirmed by the Federal Government: they would receive a guaranteed pension; they would have company-paid health insurance until they qualified for Medicare; they would receive company-paid supplemental medical insurance after turning 65; they would receive a fixed death benefit in the event of a fatal accident; and they would have a modest life-insurance policy.


    They didn’t get those things. And they won’t.


    Corporate promises are often not worth the paper they’re printed on. Businesses in one industry after another are revoking long-standing commitments to their workers. It’s the equivalent of your bank telling you that it needs the money you put into your savings account more than you do–and then keeping it. Result: a wholesale downsizing of the American Dream. It began in the 1980s with the elimination of middle-class, entry-level jobs in lower-paying industries–apparel, textiles and shoes, among others. More recently it spread to jobs that pay solid middle-class wages, starting with the steel industry, then airlines and now autos–with no end in sight.


    That’s why Whitehouse, as difficult as her situation is, is worried more about how her children and grandchildren will cope. And well she should. For while her story is the tale of millions of older Americans, it is also a window into the future for many millions more. A TIME investigation has concluded that long before today’s working Americans reach retirement age, policy decisions by Congress favoring corporate and special interests over workers will drive millions of older Americans–a majority of them women–into poverty, push millions more to the brink and turn retirement years into a time of need for everyone but the affluent. The transition is well under way, eroding efforts of the past three decades to eliminate poverty among the aging. From taxes to health care to pensions, Congress has enacted legislation that adds to the cost of retirement and eats away at dollars once earmarked for food and shelter. That reversal of fortunes is staggering, and even those already retired or near retirement will be squeezed by changing economic rules.


    Congress’s role has been pivotal. Lawmakers wrote bankruptcy regulations to allow corporations to scrap the health insurance they promised employees who retired early–sometimes voluntarily, quite often not. They wrote pension rules that encouraged corporations to underfund their retirement plans or switch to plans less favorable to employees. They denied workers the right to sue to enforce retirement promises. They have refused to overhaul America’s health-care system, which has created the world’s most expensive medical care without any comparable benefit. One by one, lawmakers have undermined or destroyed policies that once afforded at least the possibility of a livable existence to many seniors, while at the same time encouraging corporations to repudiate lifetime-benefit agreements. All this under the guise of ensuring workers that they are in charge of their own destiny–such as it is.


    The process has accelerated dramatically this year. Two major U.S. airlines–Delta and Northwest–turned to bankruptcy court to cut costs and delay pension-fund contributions. This followed earlier bankruptcy filings by United Airlines and USAirways, both of which jettisoned their guaranteed pension plans. Then on Oct. 8, the largest U.S. auto-parts maker, Delphi Corp., filed for bankruptcy protection, seeking to cut off medical and life-insurance benefits for its retirees. Delphi’s pension funds are short $11 billion. To Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard law professor who specializes in bankruptcy, this is just going to get worse, as ever more companies see the value to their bottom line of “scraping off” employee obligations. “There’s no business in America that isn’t going to figure out a way to get rid of [these benefit promises].”


    That may include the world’s largest automaker–General Motors. Although GM chairman Rick Wagoner has insisted that “we don’t consider bankruptcy to be a viable business strategy,” some on Wall Street are skeptical, given the company’s array of problems. Their view was reinforced when GM, the company that dominated the American economy through the 20th century, announced on Oct. 17 that it had reached a precedent-setting agreement with the United Auto Workers leadership to rescind $1 billion worth of health-care benefits for its retirees. If ratified by the union membership, the retrenchment will hasten the end to company-subsidized health care for all retirees. From 1988 to 2004, the share of employers with 200 or more workers offering retiree health insurance plunged, from 66% to 36%. The end result: a fresh and additional burden on retirees. Concluded a report by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Hewitt Associates: “For the majority of workers who retire before they turn age 65 and are eligible for Medicare, the coverage provided under employer plans is often difficult, if not impossible to find anywhere else.” For retirees over 65, “employer plans remain the primary source of prescription drug coverage for seniors on Medicare … This coverage is more generous than the standard prescription drug benefit that will be offered by Medicare plans beginning in 2006.”


    Perhaps the best yardstick to assess the outlook for the later years is the defined-benefit pension, long the gold standard for retirement because it guarantees a fixed income for life. The number of such plans offered by corporations has plunged from 112,200 in 1985 to 29,700 today. Since 1985, the number of active workers covered in the private sector declined from 22 million to 17 million. They are the last members of what once promised to be the U.S.’s golden retirement era, and they are fast disappearing. From 2001 to 2004, nearly 200 corporations in the FORTUNE 1000 killed or froze their defined-benefit plans. Most recently, Hewlett-Packard, long one of the most admired U.S. companies, pulled the plug on guaranteed pensions for new workers. An HP spokesman said the company had concluded that “pension plans are kind of a thing of the past.” In that, HP was merely following the lead of business rival IBM and such other major companies as NCR Corp., Sears Holding Corp. and Motorola. The nation’s largest employer, Wal-Mart, does not offer such pensions either. At the current pace, human-resources offices will turn out the lights in their defined-benefit section within a decade or so. At that point, individuals will assume all the risks for their retirement, just as they did 100 years ago.


    The shift away from guaranteed pensions was encouraged by Congress, which structured the rules in a way that invites corporations to abandon their defined-benefit plans in favor of defined-contribution plans, increasingly 401(k)s, in which employees set aside a fixed sum of money toward retirement. Many companies also contribute; some don’t. Whatever the case, the contributions will never be enough to match the certain and long-term income from a defined-benefit plan. What’s more, once the money runs out, that’s it. If people live longer than expected, get stuck with unanticipated expenses or suffer losses of other once promised benefits, they will have little besides their Social Security to sustain them.


    The dawning perception among Americans that when it comes to retirement, you’re on your own, baby, is surely a reason that President George Bush ran into so much opposition to his proposal to change Social Security from a risk-free plan into one with so-called private accounts. Critics of the 70-year-old system were determined to chip away at Social Security as part of a larger effort to promote what the Bush Administration calls an “ownership society.” As Treasury Secretary John Snow told a congressional committee in February 2004: “I think we need to be concerned about pensions and the security that employees have in their pensions. And I think we need to encourage people to save and become part of an ownership society, which is very much a part of the President’s vision for America.”


    Of course, it’s much easier to own a piece of America when you have a pension like Snow’s. When he stepped down as head of CSX Corp.–operator of the largest rail network in the eastern U.S.–to take over Treasury, Snow was given a lump-sum pension of $33.2 million. It was based on 44 years of employment at CSX. Unlike most ordinary people, who must work the actual years on which their pension is calculated, Snow was employed just 26 years. The additional 18 years of his CSX employment history were fictional, a gift from the company’s board of directors.


    Snow is not alone. The phantom employment record, as it might be called, is a common executive-retirement practice in corporate America–and one that is spelled out in corporate filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Drew Lewis, the Pennsylvania Republican and onetime head of the U.S. Department of Transportation, got a $1.5 million annual pension when he retired in 1996 as chairman and CEO of Union Pacific Corp. His pension was based on 30 years of service to the company, but he actually worked there only 11 years. The other 19 years of his employment history came courtesy of Union Pacific’s board of directors, which included Vice President Dick Cheney. And then there’s Leo Mullin, the former chairman and CEO of Delta Air Lines. Under Mullin’s stewardship, Delta killed the defined-benefit pension of its nonunion workers and replaced it with a less generous plan. Now, little more than a year after he retired, the airline is in bankruptcy and can dump its pension obligations. But you need not fret about Mullin. On his way out the door, he picked up a $16 million retirement package. It’s based on 28.5 years of employment with Delta, at least 21 years more than he worked at the airline.


    HOW SAVINGS CAN BE HIJACKED


    At the same time corporate executives are paid retirement dollars for years they never worked, hapless employees lose supplemental retirement benefits for a lifetime of actual work. Just ask Betty Moss. She was one of thousands of workers at Polaroid Corp.–the Waltham, Mass., maker of instant cameras and film–who, beginning in 1988, gave up 8% of their salary to underwrite an employee stock-ownership plan, or ESOP. It was created to thwart a corporate takeover and “to provide a retirement benefit” to Polaroid employees to supplement their pension, the company pledged. Alas, it was not to be. Polaroid was slow to react to the digital revolution and began to lose money in the 1990s. From 1995 to 1998, the company racked up $359 million in losses. As its balance sheet deteriorated, so did the value of its stock, including shares in the ESOP. In October 2001, Polaroid sought bankruptcy protection from creditors.


    By then, Polaroid’s shares were virtually worthless, having plummeted from $60 in 1997 to less than the price of a Coke in October 2001. During that period, employees were forbidden to unload their stock, based on laws approved by Congress. But what employees weren’t allowed to do at a higher price, the company-appointed trustee could do at the lowest possible price–without even seeking the workers’ permission. Rather than wait for a possible return to profitability through restructuring, the trustee decided that it was “in the best interests” of the employees to sell the ESOP shares. They went for 9¢. In short order, a $300 million retirement nest egg put away by 6,000 Polaroid employees was wiped out. Many lost between $100,000 and $200,000.


    Moss was one of the losers. Now 60, she spent 35 years at Polaroid, beginning as a file clerk out of high school, then working her way through college at night and eventually rising to be senior regional operations manager in Atlanta. “It was the kind of place people dream of working at,” she said. “I can honestly say I never dreaded going to work. It was just the sort of place where good things were always happening.” One of those good things was supposed to be the ESOP, touted by the company as a plan that “forced employees to save for their retirement,” as Moss recalled. “Everybody went for it. We had been so conditioned to believe what we were told was true.”


    Once Polaroid entered bankruptcy, Moss and her retired co-workers learned a bitter lesson–that they had no say in the security of benefits they had worked all their lives to accumulate. While the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) agreed to make good on most of their basic pensions, the rest of their benefits–notably the ESOP accounts, along with retirement health care and severance packages–were canceled. The retirees, generally well educated and financially savvy, organized to try to win back some of what they had lost by petitioning bankruptcy court, which would decide how to divide the company’s assets among creditors. To no avail: Polaroid’s management had already undercut the employees’ effort. Rather than file for bankruptcy in Boston, near the corporate offices, the company took its petition to Wilmington, Del., and a bankruptcy court that had developed a reputation for favoring corporate managers. There, Polaroid’s management contended that the company was in terrible financial shape and that the only option was to sell rather than reorganize. The retirees claimed that Polaroid executives were undervaluing the business so the company could ignore its obligations to retirees and sell out to private investors.


    The bankruptcy judge ruled in favor of the company. In 2002 Polaroid was sold to One Equity Partners, an investment firm with a special interest in financially distressed businesses. (One Equity was a unit of Bank One Corp., now part of JPMorgan Chase.) Many retirees believed the purchase price of $255 million was only a fraction of the old Polaroid’s value. Evidence supporting that view: the new owners financed their purchase, in part, with $138 million of Polaroid’s own cash.


    Employees did not leave bankruptcy court empty-handed. They all got something in the mail. Moss will never forget the day hers arrived. “I got a check for $47,” she recalled. She had lost tens of thousands of dollars in ESOP contributions, health benefits and severance payments. Now she and the rest of Polaroid’s other 6,000 retirees were being compensated with $47 checks. “You should have heard the jokes,” she said. “How about we all meet at McDonald’s and spend our $47?”


    Under a new management team headed by Jacques Nasser, former chairman of Ford Motor Co., Polaroid returned to profitability almost overnight. Little more than two years after the company emerged from bankruptcy, One Equity sold it to a Minnesota entrepreneur for $426 million in cash. The new managers, who had received stock in the postbankruptcy Polaroid, walked away with millions of dollars. Nasser got $12.8 million for his 1 million shares. Other executives and directors were rewarded for their efforts. Rick Lazio, a four-term Republican from West Islip, N.Y., who effectively gave up his House seat for an unsuccessful Senate run against Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2000, collected $512,675 for a brief stint as a director. That amounted to nearly twice the $282,000 paid to all 6,000 retirees. The $12.08 a share that the new managers received for little more than two years of work was 134 times the 9¢ a share handed out earlier to lifelong workers.


    LET’S BREAK A DEAL


    Washington has a rich history of catering to special and corporate interests at the expense of ordinary citizens. Nowhere is this more evident than in legislation dealing with company pensions. It has been this way since 1964, when carmaker Studebaker Corp. collapsed after 60 years, junking the promised pensions of 4,000 workers not yet eligible for retirement, pensions the company had spelled out in brochures for years: “You may be a long way from retirement age now. Still, it’s good to know that Studebaker is building up a fund for you, so that when you reach retirement age you can settle down on a farm, visit around the country or just take it easy, and know that you’ll still be getting a regular monthly pension paid for entirely by the company.”


    Oops. There oughta be a law.


    It took Congress 10 years to respond to the Studebaker pension abandonment by writing the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) of 1974. It established minimum standards for retirement plans in private industry and created the PBGC to guarantee them. Then President Gerald Ford summed up the measure when he signed it into law that Labor Day: “This legislation will alleviate the fears and the anxiety of people who are on the production lines or in the mines or elsewhere, in that they now know that their investment in private pension funds will be better protected.”


    Perhaps for some, but far from all.


    Another group that had no pension worries would turn out to be the biggest winners under the bill. Congress wrote the law so broadly that moneymen could dip into pension funds and remove cash set aside for workers’ retirement. During the 1980s, that’s exactly what a cast of corporate raiders, speculators, Wall Street buyout firms and company executives did with a vengeance. Throughout the decade, they walked away with an estimated $21 billion earmarked for workers’ retirement pay. The raiders insisted that they took only excess assets that weren’t needed. Among the pension buccaneers: Meshulam Riklis, a once flamboyant Beverly Hills, Calif., takeover artist who skimmed millions from several companies, including the McCrory Corp., the onetime retail fixture of Middle America that is now gone; and the late Victor Posner, the Miami Beach corporate raider who siphoned millions of dollars from more than half a dozen different companies, including Fischbach Corp., a New York electrical contractor that he drove to the edge of extinction. Those two raiders alone raked off about $100 million in workers’ retirement dollars–all perfectly legal, thanks to Congress. By the time all the billions of dollars were gone and the public outcry had grown too loud to ignore, Congress in 1990 belatedly rewrote the rules and imposed an excise tax on money removed from pension funds. The raids slowed to a trickle.


    During those same years, the PBGC, which insures private pension plans, published an annual list of the 50 most underfunded of those plans. In shining a spotlight on those that had fallen behind in their contributions, the agency hoped to prod companies to keep current. Corporations hated the list. They maintained that the PBGC’s methodology did not reflect the true financial condition of their pension plans. After all, as long as the stock market went up–and never down or sideways–the pension plans would be adequately funded. Congress liked that reasoning and, in 1994, reacting to corporate claims that the underfunded list caused needless anxiety among employees, voted to keep the data secret. When the PBGC killed its Top 50 list, David M. Strauss, then the agency’s executive director, explained, “With full implementation of [the 1994 pension law], we now have better tools in place.” PBGC officials were so bullish about those “better tools,” including provisions to levy higher fees on companies ignoring obligations to their employees, they predicted that underfunded pension plans would be a thing of the past. As a story in the Los Angeles Times put it, “PBGC officials said the act nearly guarantees that large underfunded plans will strengthen and the chronic deficits suffered by the pension guaranty organization will be eliminated within 10 years.”


    Not even close; instead they accelerated at warp speed. In 1994 the deficit in PBGC plans was $31 billion. Today it’s $450 billion, or $600 billion if one includes multiemployer plans of unionized employees who work for more than one business in such industries as construction.


    Since the PBGC no longer publishes its Top 50 list, anyone looking for even remotely comparable information must sift through the voluminous filings of individual companies with the SEC or the Labor Department, where pension-plan finances are recorded, or turn to the reports of independent firms such as Standard & Poor’s. The findings aren’t reassuring. According to S&P, Sara Lee Corp. of Chicago, a global maker of food products, ended 2004 with a pension deficit of $1.5 billion. The company’s pension plans held enough assets to cover 69.8% of promised retirement pay. Ford Motor Co.’s deficit came in at $12.3 billion. It could write retirement checks for 83% of money owed. ExxonMobil Corp. was down $11.5 billion, with enough money to issue retirement checks covering 61% of promised benefits. Exxon had extracted $1.6 billion from its pension plans in 1986 because they were deemed overfunded. The company explained then that “our shareholders would be better served” that way.


    In reality, the deficits in many cases are worse than the published data suggest, which becomes evident when bankrupt corporations dump their pension plans on the PBGC. Time after time, the agency has discovered, the gap between retirement holdings and pensions owed was much wider than the companies reported to stockholders or employees. Thus LTV Corp., the giant Cleveland steelmaker, reported that its plan for hourly workers was about 80% funded, but when it was turned over to the PBGC, there were assets to cover only 52% of benefits–a shortfall of $1.6 billion to be assumed by the agency.


    How can this be? Thanks to the way Congress writes the rules, pension accounting has a lot in common with Enron accounting, but with one exception: it’s perfectly legal. By adjusting the arcane formulas used to calculate pension assets and obligations, corporate accountants can turn a drastically underfunded system into a financially healthy one, even inflate a company’s profits and push up its stock price. Ethan Kra, chief actuary of Mercer Human Resources Consulting, once put it this way: “If you used the same accounting for the operations side [of a corporation] that is used on pension funds, you would be put in jail.”


    The old PBGC lists of deadbeat pension funds served another purpose. They were an early-warning sign of companies in trouble–a sign often ignored or denied by the companies themselves. “Somehow, if companies are making progress toward an objective that’s consistent with [the PBGC's], then I think it’s counterproductive to be exposed on this public listing,” complained Gary Millenbruch, executive vice president of Bethlehem Steel, a perennial favorite on the Top 50.


    Time proved Millenbruch wrong. The early warnings about Bethlehem’s pension liabilities turned out to be right on target. Bethlehem Steel eventually filed for bankruptcy, and the PBGC took over its pension plans–which were short $3.7 billion. The company, once America’s second largest steelmaker, no longer exists. In the Top 50 pension deadbeats of 1990, the PBGC reported that the funds of Pan Am Corp., operator of what was once the premier global airline, had only one-third of the assets needed to pay its promised pensions. Pan Am does not exist today.


    Contrary to the assertions of company executives, PBGC officials and members of Congress, one company after another on the 1990 Top 50 disappeared. To be sure, many are still around. Like General Motors. That year, the PBGC reported a $1.9 billion deficit in GM’s pension plans. Today, by GM’s reckoning, the deficit is $10 billion. The PBGC estimates it at $31 billion. As for the pension-fund deficit, if GM or any other company can’t come up with the money, the PBGC will cover retirement checks up to a fixed amount–$45,600 this year–or until the agency runs out of money. That’s projected to occur around 2013. At that point, Congress will be forced to decide whether to bail out the agency at a cost of $100 billion or more. When judgment day comes, other economic forces will influence the decision. Medicare, which is in far worse shape than Social Security, already is in the red on a cash basis. In what promises to play out as a mean-spirited competition, Congress has laid the groundwork to pit individual citizens against one another, to fight over the budget scraps available for those and all other programs.


    WHO’S LEFT HOLDING THE BAG?


    In the meantime, pension plans that companies are dumping are so short of assets that the PBGC’s financial position is rapidly deteriorating. In 2000, the agency operated with a $10 billion surplus. By 2004, the surplus had turned into a $23 billion deficit. By the end of this year, the shortfall may top $30 billion. As the Government Accountability Office put it earlier this year: “PBGC’s accumulated deficit is too big, and plans simply do not have enough money in the system to back up the long-term promises many employers have made to their workers.” To add to its woes, the agency has a record 350 active bankruptcy cases, according to Bradley D. Belt, executive director. Of those, Belt told Congress, “37 have underfunding claims of $100 million or more, including six in excess of $500 million.”


    Congress idly watched United Airlines and USAirways unload their pension obligations on the PBGC. Now Delta and Northwest are positioned to do the same. That increases the likelihood that other old-line carriers like American and Continental will be forced to do likewise. Northwest’s CEO, Douglas Steenland, bluntly told the Senate Finance Committee last June, “Northwest has concluded that defined-benefit plans simply do not work for an industry that is as competitive and vulnerable from forces ranging from terrorism to international oil prices that are largely beyond its control, as is the airline industry.” In that, he merely echoed Robert Crandall, former chief of American Airlines, who told another Senate committee in October 2004: “All the [older] legacy carriers must get rid of their defined-benefit pension plans.” In all, the pension funds of those airlines are short $22 billion.


    The sudden shift from annual pensions of a guaranteed amount for a lifetime to a lesser and uncertain amount for a limited period is taking its toll on workers. Robin Gilinger, 42, a United flight attendant for 14 years, sees a frightening financial picture. She has another 14 years to go before she can take early retirement. Under the old pension plan she would have received a monthly check of $2,184. Because of givebacks, that’s down to $776–a poverty-level annual income of $9,312 by today’s standards, even before inflation takes its toll over the coming years. And there is the distinct possibility it could be less than that. Her husband lost his pension in a corporate takeover.


    Gilinger, who lives with her husband and 9-year-old daughter in Mount Laurel, N.J., is not planning on early retirement and certainly couldn’t afford it in the current situation. But she has concerns reminiscent of Joy Whitehouse’s experience. “It’s scary. What if something happened to my husband or if I got disabled?” she asks. “Then I’m looking at nothing. Above all, what’s frustrating is that we were told we were going to get our pension and we’re not. The senior flight attendants, the ones who’ve worked 30 years, they’re worried how they’re going to survive.” Each time the PBGC takes on another failed pension plan, it makes the pension-insurance program more expensive for the remaining businesses. That in turn prompts other companies to unload their plans. The PBGC receives no tax money. Its revenue comes from investment income and premiums that corporations pay on their insured workers. As a result, soundly managed companies with solid retirement plans are compelled to pick up the costs for plans in mismanaged companies as well as those that just want to unload their employee benefits. A proposal by the Bush Administration to overhaul the system, critics fear, would actually increase the likelihood that more companies will kill existing plans and that other companies considering establishment of a defined-benefit plan will choose a less expensive option. An analysis of 471 FORTUNE 1000 companies by Watson Wyatt Worldwide, a global consulting firm, concluded “healthy companies would see their total PBGC premiums increase 240% under the proposal, more than double the 113% increase for financially troubled employers.”


    Barring a reversal in government policies, the PBGC could require a multibillion-dollar taxpayer bailout. The last time that happened was during the 1980s and ’90s, when another government insurer, the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp., was unable to keep up with a thrift industry spinning out of control. The Federal Government eventually spent $124 billion. Unlike the FSLIC, which was backed by the U.S. government, the PBGC is not. That means an indifferent Congress could turn its back on the retirement crash. By the agency’s estimate, that would translate into a 90% reduction in pensions it currently pays.


    WHERE THE 401(K) FALLS SHORT


    The universal replacement to the pension, by the consensus of the Bush Administration, Congress, Wall Street and corporate America, is the ubiquitous 401(k). As Bush explained at a gathering at Auburn University in Montgomery, Ala., earlier this year, “When I was young, I didn’t know anything about 401(k)s because I don’t think they existed. Defined-benefit plans were the main source of retirement. Now they’ve got what they call defined-contribution plans. Workers are taking aside some of their own money and watching it grow through safe and secure investments.”


    Tell that “safe and secure” part to the folks at Enron, who lost $1 billion in their 401(k)s. Or WorldCom employees, who also lost $1 billion. Or Kmart employees, who lost at least $100 million. Welcome to the 21st century version of Studebaker.


    Truth to tell, the 401(k) was never intended as a retirement plan. It evolved out of a tax break that Congress awarded to corporate executives in 1978, allowing them to defer part of their salaries and cut their tax bills. At the time, federal income-tax rates were much higher for upper-income individuals–the top rate was 70%. (Today it’s half that.) It wasn’t until several years later that companies began to make 401(k)s available to most employees. Even then, the idea was to encourage saving and provide a tax shelter, not to substitute the plans for pensions. By 1985, assets in 401(k)s had risen to $91 billion, as more companies adopted plans. Still, the amount was only about one-tenth that in guaranteed pensions.


    All that changed as corporations discovered they could improve their bottom lines by shifting workers out of costly defined-benefit plans and into much cheaper (for companies) and more risky (for workers) uninsured 401(k)s. In effect, employees took a hefty pay cut and barely seemed to notice. Lawmakers and supporters advocated the move by pointing to a changing economy in which employees switch jobs frequently. They maintained that because defined-benefit plans are based on length of service and an average of salaries over the last few years of work, they don’t meet today’s needs. But Congress could have revised the rules and made the plans portable over a working life, just like a 401(k), and retained the guarantee of a fixed retirement amount, just like corporations do for their executives.


    As it is, 401(k) portability often impedes efforts to save for retirement. As today’s job hoppers move from one employer to another, most succumb to the temptation to cash out their 401(k)s and spend the money, a practice hardly reflective of a serious retirement system. Today $2 trillion is invested in those accounts. But to understand why the 401(k) is no substitute for a defined-benefit pension, look beneath that big number. Earlier this year the airwaves crackled with announcements that the value of the average 401(k) had climbed to $61,000 in 2004. Noticeably absent from many accounts was any reference to the median value, a more accurate indicator of the health of America’s retirement system. That number was $17,909, meaning half held less, half more. Nearly 1 in 4 accounts had a balance of less than $5,000.


    So it is that in the end, all but the most affluent citizens will have two options. They can join Joy Whitehouse in the can-collection business, or they can follow in the footsteps of Betty Dizik of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., who is into her sixth decade as a working American. She has no choice. Dizik did not lose her pension. Like most Americans, she never had one, or a 401(k). After her husband died in 1968, she held a series of jobs managing apartments and self-storage facilities, tasks that brought her into contact with the public. “I like working with people,” she said. But none of the jobs had a pension.


    Hence the importance of her monthly Social Security check, which comes to less than $1,000. The benefit barely covers her medications for heart problems and diabetes, which she says can cost her as much as $800 a month. The new Medicare prescription-drug benefit, she estimates, will still leave her with substantial out-of-pocket expenses. To pay rent, utilities, gas for her car and other living expenses, Dizik has continued to work since she turned 65. For 10 years, she was with Broward County Meals on Wheels, which provides meals to seniors, some younger than she is. But three years ago, when she turned 75, driving 100 miles a day began exacting a toll.


    Now she works at a nearby office of H&R Block, the tax- return service. “I do everything there,” she says. “I am the receptionist. The cashier. I open the office, close the office. I’m the one who takes the money to the bank. I do taxes.” A widow, she lives alone in an apartment building for seniors. Her four children help with the rent, but she is reluctant to accept anything more. “All my children are great, but I do not like to ask them for anything,” she said. “I’m waiting for myself to get old, when I will need their help.” For the time being, she says, “I’m going strong. I have to.”


    She doesn’t have much hope that Washington will be able to help seniors like her. “They don’t understand what it’s like to worry: Are you going to be able to make it every month, to pay the telephone bill, the electric bill? How much are you going to have left over for food and other expenses?” Her key to getting by each month is forcing herself to live within a strict budget. “You learn to live very carefully,” she said. Although Dizik really would like to retire, she can’t. “I will be working the rest of my life.” Soon, she will have lots of company.


     


     


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  • Cover
    Vicious Cycles


    Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006

    The debate over whether Earth is warming up is over. Now we’re learning that climate disruptions feed off one another in accelerating spirals of destruction. Scientists fear we may be approaching the point of no return.  Without the greenhouse effect, life on Earth would not be possible. Energy from the sun is absorbed by the planet and radiated back out as heat.  Atmospheric gases like carbon dioxide trap that heat and keep it from leaking into space. That’s what keeps us warm at night.


    But as humans pour ever increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, more of the sun’s heat gets trapped, and the planet gets a fever.  The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is climbing fast. Most of it comes from burning fuels for energy–gasoline in cars or coal for electricity, for example. The U.S., with less than 5% of the world’s population, produces one-quarter of all greenhouse gases.  Deforestation, through clear-cutting or burning, sows havoc far beyond the affected area. The fires release still more carbon into the atmosphere, fewer plants survive to convert CO2 into oxygen, and scorched soil absorbs more heat and retains less water, increasing droughts •Plants take in.  Soil dries out.  The North Pole may be seasonally ice free by 2050. Melting permafrost will release vast amounts of trapped carbon into the air.  Ice reflects nearly all the sun’s energy that hits it. As the planet’s ice melts, more of that energy is absorbed by Earth–which further raises the temperature. That, in turn, makes the remaining ice melt quicker.  The ice at the North Pole is floating, so as it melts, the sea level won’t change much. But the massive ice sheets over Antarctica and Greenland are another story. If both melted completely, sea levels could rise nearly 220 ft. (72 m). That’s a worst-case scenario. But the melting is accelerating, and sea levels are projected to rise gradually, threatening low-lying communities


    Sources: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report; NOAA; NASA; National Snow and Ice Data Center; Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center; National Center for Atmospheric Research; U.S. Global Change Research Program; Goddard Institute for Space Studies


     



    The Impact of Asia’s Giants

    How China and India could save the planet–or destroy it


    Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006


    If everyone lived like the average Chinese or Indian, you wouldn’t be reading about global warming. On a per capita basis, China and India emit far less greenhouse gas than energy-efficient Japan, environmentally scrupulous Sweden–and especially the gas-guzzling U.S. (The average American is responsible for 20 times as much CO2 emission annually as the average Indian.) There’s only one problem: 2.4 billion people live in China and India, a great many of whom aspire to an American-style energy-intensive life. And thanks to the breakneck growth of the two countries’ economies, they just might get there–with potentially disastrous results for the world’s climate.


    The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that the increase in greenhouse-gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 from China alone will nearly equal the increase from the entire industrialized world. India, though behind its Asian rival, could see greenhouse-gas emissions that rise 70% by 2025, according to the World Resources Institute. But the nearly double-digit growth rates that are responsible for those nightmare projections also present an environmental opportunity. “Anything you want to do about clean energy is easier to do from the outset,” says David Moskowitz, an energy consultant who has advised Chinese officials. “Every time they add a power plant or factory, they can add one cleaner and better than before.” If China and India can muster the will and resources to leapfrog the West’s energy-heavy development path, dangerous climate change might be averted. “China and India have to demonstrate to other countries that it is possible to develop in a sustainable way,” says Yang Fuqiang, vice president of the Energy Foundation in Beijing. “We can’t fail.”


    The Kyoto accord on climate change did nothing to slow growth in China and India because as developing countries they are not required under the protocol to make cuts in carbon emissions–and that is not likely to change after the agreement expires in 2012. Both countries are desperate for energy to fuel the economic expansion that is pulling their citizens out of poverty, and despite bold investments in renewables, much of that energy will have to come from coal, the only traditional energy source they have in abundance. Barbara Finamore, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council’s China Clean Energy Program, estimates that China’s total electricity demand will increase by 2,600 gigawatts by 2050, which is the equivalent of adding four 300-megawatt power plants every week for the next 45 years. India’s energy consumption rose 208% from 1980 to 2001, even faster than China’s, but nearly half the population still lacks regular access to electricity–a fact the government is working to change. “They’ll do what they can, but overall emissions are likely to rise much higher than they are now,” says Jonathan Sinton, China analyst for the IEA.


    Environmentalism inevitably takes a backseat to development in China and India, but even among many green advocates there, climate change is seen as a less pressing problem than air and water pollution. There is also a widespread feeling that the developed world, which grew rich while freely spewing carbon, should take most of the responsibility for climate change. “Our issue is that, first and foremost, the U.S. needs to reduce its emissions,” says Sunita Narain, director of the Center for Science and Environment in New Delhi. “It is unacceptable and immoral that the U.S. doesn’t take the lead on climate change.” The Bush Administration, in turn, has rejected Kyoto partly because developing countries were exempt from emissions cuts.


    The standoff between the U.S. and the Asian giants has stymied international climate-change efforts for years, but that is beginning to change–and some of the push is coming from Beijing. For most of the recent Montreal climate conference, the U.S. resisted any serious discussion of what should be done after Kyoto expires. But several major developing countries, including China as a quiet but present force, supported further talks and helped break down U.S. opposition. “At the moment, China seems more interested in engaging on this issue internationally than the U.S. does,” says Elliot Diringer, director of international strategies for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.


    That’s because China and India increasingly see climate-change policy as a way to address some of their immediate problems–such as energy shortages and local environmental ills–while getting the international community to help foot the bill. Thanks to poorly run plants and antiquated power grids, China and India are extremely energy inefficient. China uses three times as much energy as the U.S. to produce $1 of economic output. But that means there is a lot of room for improvement, and saving energy by cutting waste is less expensive than building new coal plants. It also reduces dependence on foreign energy and comes carbon and pollutant free. “Efficiency really is the sweet spot,” says Dan Dudek, a chief economist at Environmental Defense. Beijing agrees: the government aims to reduce energy intensity–the amount of energy used relative to the size of the economy–20% by 2010.


    Making ambitious pledges is easy–that is what five-year plans are for–but finding the will and the funds to make them stick is trickier. One source of funding is the Clean Development Mechanism, a part of the Kyoto Protocol that allows developed countries to sponsor greenhouse-cutting projects in developing countries in exchange for carbon credits that can be used for meeting emissions targets. Those projects don’t require any technological breakthroughs. A 2003 study by the consulting firm CRA International found that if China and India invested fully in technology already in use in the U.S., the total carbon savings by 2012 would be comparable to what could be achieved if every country under the Kyoto Protocol actually met its targets.


    But that window of opportunity is closing rapidly. Every step forward that these countries take today (such as China’s move to make its auto-emission regulations stricter than the U.S.’s) risks being swamped by growth tomorrow (for example, China could have 140 million cars on the road by 2020). What China and India really need to ensure green development is what the world needs: a broadly accepted post-Kyoto pact that is strict enough to make it economically worthwhile to eliminate carbon emissions. Though actual cuts are off the table for now, Beijing and New Delhi seem willing to discuss softer targets, such as lowering carbon intensity. But they feel that Washington must take the lead. “It is possible for these countries to achieve the growth they deserve without wrecking the climate,” says Diringer. “They just can’t do it on their own. It has to go through the U.S.”


    Maybe we can begin by living a bit more like the average Chinese or Indian–before they start living like us.


     


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    Feeling The Heat

    Global warming is already disrupting the biological world, pushing many species to the brink of extinction and turning others into runaway pests. But the worst is yet to come


    Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006


    QUIVER TREE This striking giant aloe was given its name by the San people of southern Africa, who use the tree’s hollow branches as quivers for their arrows. Scientists have discovered that quiver trees are starting to die off in parts of their traditional range. The species might be in the early stages of moving southward, trying to escape rising temperatures closer to the equator.


    PINON MOUSE This tiny resident of the southwestern U.S. has long eked out its living in juniper woodlands, but in California it is heading for higher, cooler altitudes in the High Sierra conifer forests. The mouse is one of several small mammals in the region that have moved their homes 1,000 to 3,000 ft. higher in elevation over the past century.


    RED-BREASTED GOOSE Twenty-six bird species, including this goose, which breeds in the Arctic, are listed by the World Conservation Union as threatened by global warming. Half are seabirds whose food supplies are diminished because of climate changes. The rest are terrestrial species, including several whose coastal habitats are at risk because of rising sea levels.


    AFRICAN ELEPHANT Global warming might not only shrink the elephant’s range within Africa but may also wreak havoc with the animal’s love life. The relative abundance–or scarcity–of food affects the social hierarchy of the herd, which in turn can determine which animals get to breed.


    BUTTERFLIES Researchers have documented shifts in the ranges of many butterflies. One study looked at 35 species of nonmigratory butterflies whose ranges extended from northern Africa to northern Europe. The scientists found that two-thirds of the species had shifted their home ranges northward by 20 to 150 miles. In the U.S., researchers have closely tracked the movements of the butterfly known as Edith’s checkerspot (at right, middle). Though butterflies might be sturdier than they look, scientists believe many species will not survive the impact of climate change.


    KING PROTEA It is the national flower of South Africa, just one among the many spectacular members of the large family of flowering plants named after Proteus, a Greek god capable of changing his shape at will. Scientists fear that more than a third of all Proteaceae species could disappear by 2050.


    MISTLETOE The limber pine dwarf mistletoe is proliferating throughout western forests in North America, thanks to heat and drought-weakened trees that act as perfect hosts for this botanical parasite. It’s not unlike what happens in your body, says researcher Connie Millar of the U.S. Forest Service: “When your system is stressed, you’re more vulnerable to all kinds of things that want to get you.”


    FROGS Amphibians have been hopping, swimming and crawling about the planet for 350 million years. But their future is hardly assured. A global assessment of the state of this entire class of vertebrates found that nearly one-third of the 5,743 known species are in serious trouble. Climate change may well be the culprit in most cases, either directly or indirectly. The home habitat of the golden toad (at right, bottom) in Costa Rica moved up the mountain until “home” disappeared entirely. More than two-thirds of the 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs in Central and South America, two shown above, have also disappeared. Scientists believe that what killed many of the harlequins and what threatens a great many other amphibian species is a disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Climate change seems to be making frogs more vulnerable to infection by the fungus.


    What troubles scientists especially is that if we are only in the early stages of warming, all these lost and endangered animals might be just the first of many to go. One study estimates that more than a million species worldwide could be driven to extinction by the year 2050.


     


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  •  


    Hurricane Rita

    Act Two

    Hurricane Rita brings a second cruel assault on the Gulf Coast. How well did we apply Katrina’s lessons?


    Sunday, Sep. 25, 2005

    We get to know our hurricanes so well now. We christen them and watch them grow from little tempests way out at sea to big, clumsy storms spilling bright orange rings all over the weather maps. We track them so closely that we fool ourselves into thinking that what we can’t control we can at least predict, with all our models and millibars, as though it were not in the very nature of hurricanes to skid and twist and break things. That’s worth remembering now as the skies clear and we measure what worked and what didn’t, who overreacted, who waited too long, as though someone should have had perfect intelligence about the least predictable of all our natural enemies.


    Was any storm ever watched as closely as Rita, Katrina’s unwelcome sister come to test the learning curve? There would be nothing normal about her, not after where we’ve been. Politicians and reporters prowled the operations centers. FEMA rained press releases. Disaster officials positioned supplies every 10 feet across East Texas–truckloads of water and ice, hospital beds, even the microchips to be implanted in dead bodies for identification. Fifty thousand troops were on the ground, as local, state and federal officials strapped themselves together in a life belt of plans and protocols designed to protect both the public and themselves.


    And still the ironies blew in one after another. The previous storm was followed by so much human failure that it all but ensured this one would be preceded by failure. Thirty-four elderly people drowned in New Orleans because they didn’t leave, and 24 people in Texas burned when they did. People filled their cars with their most precious possessions, only to abandon them on the highway when the traffic stopped and the engines died. President George W. Bush could not win; even before Rita hit, grouchy critics were saying, “Well, of course he’ll take care of his home state.” And in sad and sodden New Orleans, where army engineers had spent the past three weeks dumping sand and gravel to patch the levees, the debates about rebuilding were drowned in the second wave. “People are just going to be thinking, What’s the damn point if this is going to keep happening?” said a New Orleans cop as he surveyed a flooded underpass. Soldiers went out to stare at the waterfall over the levee, and some took pictures–a still life in human limitations.


    The culture of blame thrives in this climate, so it was easy to miss the victories. It is no small thing to evacuate the fourth biggest city in the country–not just the willing and mobile but also the old, the sick, the stubborn, women in labor, babies in incubators, criminals in prisons–more than the populations of 15 states, all on the move at once. Some tempers melted in Houston’s 100-degree heat, but the effort in its entirety was a pageant in patience and cooperation. In the end, the greatest irony may turn out to be the high cost of good news. It will be days before we know the full scope of the damage, in homes and lives and livelihoods. But if it turns out that for all the disruption, fewer people died, more homes were spared and the destruction was not as bad so officials had feared, they know there is one last price they will pay, a debt that will come due the next time a disaster wanders into view and they once again have to convince people that it is far better to be safe than sorry.


    It turns out that you can’t drain a city of 2 million people in a day. It’s not as if it’s a fire drill you can practice, other than on a computer model that will never account for all the brave and stupid and sentimental things people do when their world starts to rattle and pitch. Sound the alarms too soon, and you may disrupt lives for no reason. Wait too long, and you risk losing them.


    For officials in cities across the country, newly aware that they had better have some kind of rational evacuation plan in place, Rita taught as much about the challenge of leaving as Katrina taught about staying behind. Los Angeles, sitting on a basket of fault lines, has no plans for a mass evacuation. San Francisco envisions sending residents out across bridges that could crumple. New York City at least has subways that can move 8 million people a day–but those lines are mentioned as a favorite terrorist target.


    In Texas, the plan was for about a million people to move out of harm’s way. The reality was that two and half times as many hit the roads, and that doesn’t count the dogs and cats and goats and hedgehogs evacuating as well. The Texodus came in waves, first on Tuesday from Galveston, the barrier island of 57,000 that takes its hurricanes seriously, then thousands more from coastal towns and hundreds of thousands more from Houston, whose Mayor Bill White urged residents of low-lying areas to get out–now. “Don’t wait,” he said. “The time for warnings is over.” In Matagorda County, sheriff James Mitchell warned parents that if they decided to try to ride out the storm and were caught, they could be charged with child endangerment and their children taken into custody. But for once, the public did not need much convincing. Forecasters couldn’t say for sure where Rita was headed, and people weren’t in a mood to take chances.


    White called what followed the largest mass evacuation in U.S. history. It was also at times the slowest. By Wednesday Rita was a Category 5 hurricane, one of the three meanest storms ever tracked in the Atlantic, moving at about 9 m.p.h. toward her prey, faster than East Texas could run away. Fleeing families were lucky to move a mile in an hour. Soon dead cars lined the roadsides, and the tanker trucks meant to revive them were themselves stuck in traffic or else had the wrong nozzles to fit civilian cars. “They’re saying if you have one-eighth of a tank of gas or less, to get off the roads and let other people escape,” said Mary Sieger, 62. “But where should people go if they do pull off? There’s no gas in the entire city. They can’t get home.”


    Somehow state and city officials could not seem to reverse the southbound lanes until midday Thursday, and even that was remarkable because there was no master scheme for doing it at all. “Contraflow was never in the plan,” White tells TIME. “We improvised it.” One city official says that was only because of TV images of packed lanes next to empty ones. “They [state officials] were not going to do it,” the official says. “It was never part of the plan because they believed that the roads could accommodate the traffic.” But that’s barely true on a normal day’s rush hour, much less during a sudden spasm of survivalism. Governor Rick Perry acknowledged that being stuck in traffic for 12 or 15 hours was bad, but “it sure beats being plucked off a roof by a helicopter.” It was a line he was to repeat all day.


    After endless hours of getting nowhere on the roads, some families tried to turn back. By then, White was calling cars stuck on highways potential deathtraps. To focus the evacuation, Houston had tried to publish maps of the most vulnerable areas, but the average citizen couldn’t understand them or didn’t try. “I think people just said, ‘Oh, my God, I’m in danger. I’m leaving,’” says Carla Prater, a Texas A&M professor who helped design evacuation plans for the state. “We didn’t have time to adjust our plans in accordance with this new factor, the freak-out factor,” she tells TIME. Dozens went to hospitals, and several died of heat exhaustion and dehydration in temperatures that could bake the fruit on the trees. White warned on Friday that for those who were not already on their way, it was now too late to go.


    For those left behind, there was little to do but stock up and hunker down. At the Houston zoo, geese, ducks and chickens found shelter in one of the men’s rooms while the turkeys commandeered a ladies’ room. The Siberian tiger section offered sanctuary to some maned wolves and anteaters. “Everyone is secured from everyone else,” said spokesman Brian Hill. “There’s no danger of any animal taking advantage.” Over at the Museum of Fine Arts, a cast of Rodin’s sculpture The Walking Man was laid down so it wouldn’t fall over and get hurt. At the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, even as the patients were evacuated, researchers combed the hospital’s lab where some of the world’s most lethal viruses are studied, terminating experiments, storing viruses in locked freezers and fumigating the labs to avoid the chance that something could escape if the building were crushed.


    Big storms announce themselves with that famous calm, and people exploited it however they could. Mothers took their kids to the playground to wear them out in the event that they would be locked down for a few days. A case of water was going for $30 at a convenience store, and condoms were a top seller as well. “We needed heroic amounts of food,” said David Fine, head of St. Luke’s Episcopal Health System, “so we broke into a warehouse to get it.” The hospital got permission to pry open the freezer at a McDonald’s near Texas Children’s Medical Hospital to liberate a huge load of meat patties. The general advice? “Don’t ask permission,” advised Perry. “Ask forgiveness.”


    Everywhere across the city and beyond, people imagined the worst, and given what they had been watching night after night on the news, that wasn’t hard to do …


    Some Texans felt a gust of guilt and relief in the hours that followed, as Rita wobbled eastward on her path ashore. They knew they did not want to be on the dirty side of a big storm, the eastern wing that tosses tornadoes as she goes. Instead she moved in on the Texas-Louisiana coastline, somehow steering between the major population centers, and managed to avoid most refineries. But Rita was so big and slow, she still caused trouble hundreds of miles in every direction, including Katrina’s stomping grounds. In Beaumont, Texas, police patrolled the blacked-out streets in cruisers and on the backs of dump trucks, shotguns ready. “It was really whipping through here last night,” said resident Bill Dode. “It was extremely loud, and the house was creaking.” Tree branches were poking through some cars’ windows and some homes’ walls. At one house, a goat was standing on top of a patio table, braying at a window.


    In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin, aware that half his population may never return, had urged people to come back, only to have to turn them around again two days later as Rita approached. Watching Rita hover offshore, the Army Corps of Engineers was worried that the levees could not withstand another blow. The pumps were still operating at only 40%, and while the city was basically dry, some streets were pasted together with poison sludge. Six inches of rain, max, they said, but the levees were already overflowing by Friday morning.


    Meanwhile, the city recited its lessons like a chastened schoolboy. Buses were waiting at the Convention Center, along with half a million meals and a field hospital, in case the city endured a replay. A new $4.5 million communications system using military satellites was ready in case the phones went out again. But if the city was wiser, so were the people. They were not counting on anyone else to save them this time. In the French Quarter the Deja Vu strip club was open for business, but just about everything else was closed, and everyone was gone, except the cops, the army, the reporters and the looters. New Orleans and out-of-town police confirmed to TIME that numerous looters and carjackers had been arrested in recent days, some carrying guns and impersonating cops. “They’re drifting back in,” an officer said–and they’re hardly the residents Nagin needs to repopulate his near dead city.


    But if New Orleans was a vast urban sacrifice to greater knowledge, at least the experience was being studied at every level. The President had planned to go to Texas on Friday, having spent time earlier in the week in Louisiana and Mississippi. Wouldn’t he just get in the way?, reporters asked, which may help explain why the White House misplaced the press corps, inadvertently sending it along to San Antonio while Bush decided to head for Colorado to watch the Northern Command coordinate the federal response. As he got a tour of the facility, he finally found his bullhorn moment. When he came across a 9/11 memorial, including a photograph of him atop the rubble at ground zero, he took out his pen and signed it “May God Bless America, George W. Bush.”


    Given the challenges that face him now, as gas prices jump up three more floors and Congress revolts and the global war on hurricanes threatens to break the budget, the President did get a break from the Rita replay. For all the complaints about Bush’s handling of Katrina, it was Texas Senator John Cornyn who noted that “when you dial 911, it doesn’t ring at the White House.” While federal officials were much more attentive this time, officials in Texas showed they could make the machinery work together. Katrina was a pop quiz for Texas emergency chief Jack Colley, an ex-military man whose office is practically empty except for a few baseball caps, a picture of an old dog and a thick walking stick topped by a pilot’s joy stick. He’s a man who knows the sheriffs and mayors and agency heads by name. The state has held 150 simulation tests, including a cascading nightmare of a nuclear power leak, a Category 4 hurricane in Corpus Christi and a nuclear terrorist attack. Perry told Bush not to even consider drafting Colley when the Governor thought the President might be in the market for some experienced disaster hands in Washington.


    In the state operations center, a former cold war nuclear shelter in Austin, Perry let Colley manage the conference calls. One sheriff wanted to know whether he would be reimbursed for the gasoline he provided to federal agencies. Another said he was overwhelmed with evacuees and was worried about security along the roadways where people with knives were fighting over gas. Perry dealt with the politicians. House majority leader Tom DeLay called for the fourth or fifth time. His district would probably escape the worst, but he wanted to be sure enough National Guard troops had been called up. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff had been calling four times a day. Bush called four times and by late Saturday had gone home to Austin to see the operation for himself.


    One disaster is a test of readiness; a second is a test of character. For those already wearing I SURVIVED KATRINA T shirts, it was a cruel challenge to their resilience. “It feels like it’s following us,” said a New Orleans evacuee. They were like Israelites in the desert. There was talk of moving … to another planet. The next best thing, maybe, was Mexico. Some evacuees headed south because it was home, others on the chance that they might have to be gone for a long time, and life on the run would be cheaper there.


    Once you’ve lost everything, there is little left to mourn. More than windows and walls, hope is hard to repair once it is broken. “It’s like watching a murder,” said a repeat evacuee in Lafayette, La. “The first time is bad. After that, you numb up.” But if anything, the storm had the opposite effect on the officials in charge of responding to it. They were anything but numb–rather, aware that something profound had changed in the efforts and expectations. And that this was only the beginning.


     


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  • Robert Frost




    The Road Not Taken 




     


    Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
    And sorry I could not travel both
    And be one traveler, long I stood
    And looked down one as far as I could
    To where it bent in the undergrowth;
    Then took the other, as just as fair,
    And having perhaps the better claim,
    Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
    Though as for that the passing there
    Had worn them really about the same,
    And both that morning equally lay
    In leaves no step had trodden black.
    Oh, I kept the first for another day!
    Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
    I doubted if I should ever come back.
    I shall be telling this with a sigh
    Somewhere ages and ages hence:
    Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-
    I took the one less traveled by,
    And that has made all the difference.


     


     


    1916


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  • Walt Whitman (1819–1892).  Leaves of Grass.  1900.

    To Him that was Crucified













































    MY spirit to yours, dear brother;  
    Do not mind because many, sounding your name, do not understand you;  
    I do not sound your name, but I understand you, (there are others also;)  
    I specify you with joy, O my comrade, to salute you, and to salute those who are with you, before and since—and those to come also,  
    That we all labor together, transmitting the same charge and succession;          5
    We few, equals, indifferent of lands, indifferent of times;  
    We, enclosers of all continents, all castes—allowers of all theologies,  
    Compassionaters, perceivers, rapport of men,  
    We walk silent among disputes and assertions, but reject not the disputers, nor any thing that is asserted;  
    We hear the bawling and din—we are reach’d at by divisions, jealousies, recriminations on every side,   10
    They close peremptorily upon us, to surround us, my comrade,  
    Yet we walk unheld, free, the whole earth over, journeying up and down, till we make our ineffaceable mark upon time and the diverse eras,  
    Till we saturate time and eras, that the men and women of races, ages to come, may prove brethren and lovers, as we are.

     


     


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    Walt Whitman (1819–1892).  Leaves of Grass.  1900.

    You Felons on Trial in Courts






























































    YOU felons on trial in courts;  
    You convicts in prison-cells—you sentenced assassins, chain’d and hand-cuff’d with iron;  
    Who am I, too, that I am not on trial, or in prison?  
    Me, ruthless and devilish as any, that my wrists are not chain’d with iron, or my ankles with iron?  
      
    You prostitutes flaunting over the trottoirs, or obscene in your rooms,          5
    Who am I, that I should call you more obscene than myself?  
      
    O culpable!  
    I acknowledge—I exposé!  
    (O admirers! praise not me! compliment not me! you make me wince,  
    I see what you do not—I know what you do not.)   10
      
    Inside these breast-bones I lie smutch’d and choked;  
    Beneath this face that appears so impassive, hell’s tides continually run;  
    Lusts and wickedness are acceptable to me;  
    I walk with delinquents with passionate love;  
    I feel I am of them—I belong to those convicts and prostitutes myself,   15
    And henceforth I will not deny them—for how can I deny myself?  


     


     


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  • Polar Ice Caps Are Melting Faster Than Ever… More And More Land Is Being Devastated By Drought… Rising Waters Are Drowning Low-Lying Communities… By Any Measure, Earth Is At … The Tipping Point

    The climate is crashing, and global warming is to blame. Why the crisis hit so soon–and what we can do about it


    Sunday, Mar. 26, 2006

    No one can say exactly what it looks like when a planet takes ill, but it probably looks a lot like Earth. Never mind what you’ve heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us.


    It certainly looked that way last week as the atmospheric bomb that was Cyclone Larry–a Category 4 storm with wind bursts that reached 125 m.p.h.–exploded through northeastern Australia. It certainly looked that way last year as curtains of fire and dust turned the skies of Indonesia orange, thanks to drought-fueled blazes sweeping the island nation. It certainly looks that way as sections of ice the size of small states calve from the disintegrating Arctic and Antarctic. And it certainly looks that way as the sodden wreckage of New Orleans continues to molder, while the waters of the Atlantic gather themselves for a new hurricane season just two months away. Disasters have always been with us and surely always will be. But when they hit this hard and come this fast–when the emergency becomes commonplace–something has gone grievously wrong. That something is global warming.


    The image of Earth as organism–famously dubbed Gaia by environmentalist James Lovelock– has probably been overworked, but that’s not to say the planet can’t behave like a living thing, and these days, it’s a living thing fighting a fever. From heat waves to storms to floods to fires to massive glacial melts, the global climate seems to be crashing around us. Scientists have been calling this shot for decades. This is precisely what they have been warning would happen if we continued pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, trapping the heat that flows in from the sun and raising global temperatures.


    Environmentalists and lawmakers spent years shouting at one another about whether the grim forecasts were true, but in the past five years or so, the serious debate has quietly ended. Global warming, even most skeptics have concluded, is the real deal, and human activity has been causing it. If there was any consolation, it was that the glacial pace of nature would give us decades or even centuries to sort out the problem.


    But glaciers, it turns out, can move with surprising speed, and so can nature. What few people reckoned on was that global climate systems are booby-trapped with tipping points and feedback loops, thresholds past which the slow creep of environmental decay gives way to sudden and self-perpetuating collapse. Pump enough CO2 into the sky, and that last part per million of greenhouse gas behaves like the 212th degree Fahrenheit that turns a pot of hot water into a plume of billowing steam. Melt enough Greenland ice, and you reach the point at which you’re not simply dripping meltwater into the sea but dumping whole glaciers. By one recent measure, several Greenland ice sheets have doubled their rate of slide, and just last week the journal Science published a study suggesting that by the end of the century, the world could be locked in to an eventual rise in sea levels of as much as 20 ft. Nature, it seems, has finally got a bellyful of us.


    “Things are happening a lot faster than anyone predicted,” says Bill Chameides, chief scientist for the advocacy group Environmental Defense and a former professor of atmospheric chemistry. “The last 12 months have been alarming.” Adds Ruth Curry of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts: “The ripple through the scientific community is palpable.”


    And it’s not just scientists who are taking notice. Even as nature crosses its tipping points, the public seems to have reached its own. For years, popular skepticism about climatological science stood in the way of addressing the problem, but the naysayers–many of whom were on the payroll of energy companies–have become an increasingly marginalized breed. In a new TIME/ ABC News/ Stanford University poll, 85% of respondents agree that global warming probably is happening. Moreover, most respondents say they want some action taken. Of those polled, 87% believe the government should either encourage or require lowering of power-plant emissions, and 85% think something should be done to get cars to use less gasoline. Even Evangelical Christians, once one of the most reliable columns in the conservative base, are demanding action, most notably in February, when 86 Christian leaders formed the Evangelical Climate Initiative, demanding that Congress regulate greenhouse gases.


    A collection of new global-warming books is hitting the shelves in response to that awakening interest, followed closely by TV and theatrical documentaries. The most notable of them is An Inconvenient Truth, due out in May, a profile of former Vice President Al Gore and his climate-change work, which is generating a lot of prerelease buzz over an unlikely topic and an equally unlikely star. For all its lack of Hollywood flash, the film compensates by conveying both the hard science of global warming and Gore’s particular passion.


    Such public stirrings are at last getting the attention of politicians and business leaders, who may not always respond to science but have a keen nose for where votes and profits lie. State and local lawmakers have started taking action to curb emissions, and major corporations are doing the same. Wal-Mart has begun installing wind turbines on its stores to generate electricity and is talking about putting solar reflectors over its parking lots. HSBC, the world’s second largest bank, has pledged to neutralize its carbon output by investing in wind farms and other green projects. Even President Bush, hardly a favorite of greens, now acknowledges climate change and boasts of the steps he is taking to fight it. Most of those steps, however, involve research and voluntary emissions controls, not exactly the laws with teeth scientists are calling for.


    Is it too late to reverse the changes global warming has wrought? That’s still not clear. Reducing our emissions output year to year is hard enough. Getting it low enough so that the atmosphere can heal is a multigenerational commitment. “Ecosystems are usually able to maintain themselves,” says Terry Chapin, a biologist and professor of ecology at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. “But eventually they get pushed to the limit of tolerance.”


    CO2 AND THE POLES


    As a tiny component of our atmosphere, carbon dioxide helped warm Earth to comfort levels we are all used to. But too much of it does an awful lot of damage. The gas represents just a few hundred parts per million (p.p.m.) in the overall air blanket, but they’re powerful parts because they allow sunlight to stream in but prevent much of the heat from radiating back out. During the last ice age, the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration was just 180 p.p.m., putting Earth into a deep freeze. After the glaciers retreated but before the dawn of the modern era, the total had risen to a comfortable 280 p.p.m. In just the past century and a half, we have pushed the level to 381 p.p.m., and we’re feeling the effects. Of the 20 hottest years on record, 19 occurred in the 1980s or later. According to NASA scientists, 2005 was one of the hottest years in more than a century.


    It’s at the North and South poles that those steambath conditions are felt particularly acutely, with glaciers and ice caps crumbling to slush. Once the thaw begins, a number of mechanisms kick in to keep it going. Greenland is a vivid example. Late last year, glaciologist Eric Rignot of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and Pannir Kanagaratnam, a research assistant professor at the University of Kansas, analyzed data from Canadian and European satellites and found that Greenland ice is not just melting but doing so more than twice as fast, with 53 cu. mi. draining away into the sea last year alone, compared with 22 cu. mi. in 1996. A cubic mile of water is about five times the amount Los Angeles uses in a year.


    Dumping that much water into the ocean is a very dangerous thing. Icebergs don’t raise sea levels when they melt because they’re floating, which means they have displaced all the water they’re ever going to. But ice on land, like Greenland’s, is a different matter. Pour that into oceans that are already rising (because warm water expands), and you deluge shorelines. By some estimates, the entire Greenland ice sheet would be enough to raise global sea levels 23 ft., swallowing up large parts of coastal Florida and most of Bangladesh. The Antarctic holds enough ice to raise sea levels more than 215 ft.


    FEEDBACK LOOPS


    One of the reasons the loss of the planet’s ice cover is accelerating is that as the poles’ bright white surface shrinks, it changes the relationship of Earth and the sun. Polar ice is so reflective that 90% of the sunlight that strikes it simply bounces back into space, taking much of its energy with it. Ocean water does just the opposite, absorbing 90% of the energy it receives. The more energy it retains, the warmer it gets, with the result that each mile of ice that melts vanishes faster than the mile that preceded it.


    That is what scientists call a feedback loop, and it’s a nasty one, since once you uncap the Arctic Ocean, you unleash another beast: the comparatively warm layer of water about 600 ft. deep that circulates in and out of the Atlantic. “Remove the ice,” says Woods Hole’s Curry, “and the water starts talking to the atmosphere, releasing its heat. This is not a good thing.”


    A similar feedback loop is melting permafrost, usually defined as land that has been continuously frozen for two years or more. There’s a lot of earthly real estate that qualifies, and much of it has been frozen much longer than two years–since the end of the last ice age, or at least 8,000 years ago. Sealed inside that cryonic time capsule are layers of partially decayed organic matter, rich in carbon. In high-altitude regions of Alaska, Canada and Siberia, the soil is warming and decomposing, releasing gases that will turn into methane and CO2. That, in turn, could lead to more warming and permafrost thaw, says research scientist David Lawrence of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. And how much carbon is socked away in Arctic soils? Lawrence puts the figure at 200 gigatons to 800 gigatons. The total human carbon output is only 7 gigatons a year.


    One result of all that is warmer oceans, and a result of warmer oceans can be, paradoxically, colder continents within a hotter globe. Ocean currents running between warm and cold regions serve as natural thermoregulators, distributing heat from the equator toward the poles. The Gulf Stream, carrying warmth up from the tropics, is what keeps Europe’s climate relatively mild. Whenever Europe is cut off from the Gulf Stream, temperatures plummet. At the end of the last ice age, the warm current was temporarily blocked, and temperatures in Europe fell as much as 10°F, locking the continent in glaciers.


    What usually keeps the Gulf Stream running is that warm water is lighter than cold water, so it floats on the surface. As it reaches Europe and releases its heat, the current grows denser and sinks, flowing back to the south and crossing under the northbound Gulf Stream until it reaches the tropics and starts to warm again. The cycle works splendidly, provided the water remains salty enough. But if it becomes diluted by freshwater, the salt concentration drops, and the water gets lighter, idling on top and stalling the current. Last December, researchers associated with Britain’s National Oceanography Center reported that one component of the system that drives the Gulf Stream has slowed about 30% since 1957. It’s the increased release of Arctic and Greenland meltwater that appears to be causing the problem, introducing a gush of freshwater that’s overwhelming the natural cycle. In a global-warming world, it’s unlikely that any amount of cooling that resulted from this would be sufficient to support glaciers, but it could make things awfully uncomfortable.


    “The big worry is that the whole climate of Europe will change,” says Adrian Luckman, senior lecturer in geography at the University of Wales, Swansea. “We in the U.K. are on the same latitude as Alaska. The reason we can live here is the Gulf Stream.”


    DROUGHT


    As fast as global warming is transforming the oceans and the ice caps, it’s having an even more immediate effect on land. People, animals and plants living in dry, mountainous regions like the western U.S. make it through summer thanks to snowpack that collects on peaks all winter and slowly melts off in warm months. Lately the early arrival of spring and the unusually blistering summers have caused the snowpack to melt too early, so that by the time it’s needed, it’s largely gone. Climatologist Philip Mote of the University of Washington has compared decades of snowpack levels in Washington, Oregon and California and found that they are a fraction of what they were in the 1940s, and some snowpacks have vanished entirely.


    Global warming is tipping other regions of the world into drought in different ways. Higher temperatures bake moisture out of soil faster, causing dry regions that live at the margins to cross the line into full-blown crisis. Meanwhile, El Niño events–the warm pooling of Pacific waters that periodically drives worldwide climate patterns and has been occurring more frequently in global-warming years–further inhibit precipitation in dry areas of Africa and East Asia. According to a recent study by NCAR, the percentage of Earth’s surface suffering drought has more than doubled since the 1970s.


    FLORA AND FAUNA


    Hot, dry land can be murder on flora and fauna, and both are taking a bad hit. Wildfires in such regions as Indonesia, the western U.S. and even inland Alaska have been increasing as timberlands and forest floors grow more parched. The blazes create a feedback loop of their own, pouring more carbon into the atmosphere and reducing the number of trees, which inhale CO2 and release oxygen.


    Those forests that don’t succumb to fire die in other, slower ways. Connie Millar, a paleoecologist for the U.S. Forest Service, studies the history of vegetation in the Sierra Nevada. Over the past 100 years, she has found, the forests have shifted their tree lines as much as 100 ft. upslope, trying to escape the heat and drought of the lowlands. Such slow-motion evacuation may seem like a sensible strategy, but when you’re on a mountain, you can go only so far before you run out of room. “Sometimes we say the trees are going to heaven because they’re walking off the mountaintops,” Millar says.


    Across North America, warming-related changes are mowing down other flora too. Manzanita bushes in the West are dying back; some prickly pear cacti have lost their signature green and are instead a sickly pink; pine beetles in western Canada and the U.S. are chewing their way through tens of millions of acres of forest, thanks to warmer winters. The beetles may even breach the once insurmountable Rocky Mountain divide, opening up a path into the rich timbering lands of the American Southeast.


    With habitats crashing, animals that live there are succumbing too. Environmental groups can tick off scores of species that have been determined to be at risk as a result of global warming. Last year, researchers in Costa Rica announced that two-thirds of 110 species of colorful harlequin frogs have vanished in the past 30 years, with the severity of each season’s die-off following in lockstep with the severity of that year’s warming.


    In Alaska, salmon populations are at risk as melting permafrost pours mud into rivers, burying the gravel the fish need for spawning. Small animals such as bushy-tailed wood rats, alpine chipmunks and piñon mice are being chased upslope by rising temperatures, following the path of the fleeing trees. And with sea ice vanishing, polar bears–prodigious swimmers but not inexhaustible ones–are starting to turn up drowned. “There will be no polar ice by 2060,” says Larry Schweiger, president of the National Wildlife Federation. “Somewhere along that path, the polar bear drops out.”


    WHAT ABOUT US?


    It is fitting, perhaps, that as the species causing all the problems, we’re suffering the destruction of our habitat too, and we have experienced that loss in terrible ways. Ocean waters have warmed by a full degree Fahrenheit since 1970, and warmer water is like rocket fuel for typhoons and hurricanes. Two studies last year found that in the past 35 years the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has doubled while the wind speed and duration of all hurricanes has jumped 50%. Since atmospheric heat is not choosy about the water it warms, tropical storms could start turning up in some decidedly nontropical places. “There’s a school of thought that sea surface temperatures are warming up toward Canada,” says Greg Holland, senior scientist for NCAR in Boulder. “If so, you’re likely to get tropical cyclones there, but we honestly don’t know.”


    WHAT WE CAN DO


    So much for environmental collapse happening in so many places at once has at last awakened much of the world, particularly the 141 nations that have ratified the Kyoto treaty to reduce emissions–an imperfect accord, to be sure, but an accord all the same. The U.S., however, which is home to less than 5% of Earth’s population but produces 25% of CO2 emissions, remains intransigent. Many environmentalists declared the Bush Administration hopeless from the start, and while that may have been premature, it’s undeniable that the White House’s environmental record–from the abandonment of Kyoto to the President’s broken campaign pledge to control carbon output to the relaxation of emission standards–has been dismal. George W. Bush’s recent rhetorical nods to America’s oil addiction and his praise of such alternative fuel sources as switchgrass have yet to be followed by real initiatives.


    The anger surrounding all that exploded recently when NASA researcher Jim Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and a longtime leader in climate-change research, complained that he had been harassed by White House appointees as he tried to sound the global-warming alarm. “The way democracy is supposed to work, the presumption is that the public is well informed,” he told TIME. “They’re trying to deny the science.” Up against such resistance, many environmental groups have resolved simply to wait out this Administration and hope for something better in 2009.


    The Republican-dominated Congress has not been much more encouraging. Senators John McCain and Joe Lieberman have twice been unable to get through the Senate even mild measures to limit carbon. Senators Pete Domenici and Jeff Bingaman, both of New Mexico and both ranking members of the chamber’s Energy Committee, have made global warming a high-profile matter. A white paper issued in February will be the subject of an investigatory Senate conference next week. A House delegation recently traveled to Antarctica, Australia and New Zealand to visit researchers studying climate change. “Of the 10 of us, only three were believers,” says Representative Sherwood Boehlert of New York. “Every one of the others said this opened their eyes.”


    Boehlert himself has long fought the environmental fight, but if the best that can be said for most lawmakers is that they are finally recognizing the global-warming problem, there’s reason to wonder whether they will have the courage to reverse it. Increasingly, state and local governments are filling the void. The mayors of more than 200 cities have signed the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, pledging, among other things, that they will meet the Kyoto goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions in their cities to 1990 levels by 2012. Nine eastern states have established the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for the purpose of developing a cap-and-trade program that would set ceilings on industrial emissions and allow companies that overperform to sell pollution credits to those that underperform– the same smart, incentive-based strategy that got sulfur dioxide under control and reduced acid rain. And California passed the nation’s toughest automobile- emissions law last summer.


    “There are a whole series of things that demonstrate that people want to act and want their government to act,” says Fred Krupp, president of Environmental Defense. Krupp and others believe that we should probably accept that it’s too late to prevent CO2 concentrations from climbing to 450 p.p.m. (or 70 p.p.m. higher than where they are now). From there, however, we should be able to stabilize them and start to dial them back down.


    That goal should be attainable. Curbing global warming may be an order of magnitude harder than, say, eradicating smallpox or putting a man on the moon. But is it moral not to try? We did not so much march toward the environmental precipice as drunkenly reel there, snapping at the scientific scolds who told us we had a problem.


    The scolds, however, knew what they were talking about. In a solar system crowded with sister worlds that either emerged stillborn like Mercury and Venus or died in infancy like Mars, we’re finally coming to appreciate the knife-blade margins within which life can thrive. For more than a century we’ve been monkeying with those margins. It’s long past time we set them right.


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  • Sylvia Plath

    Mirror
     
    I am silver and exact. I have no preconceptions.
    Whatever I see, I swallow immediately.
    Just as it is, unmisted by love or dislike
    I am not cruel, only truthful –
    The eye of a little god, four-cornered.
    Most of the time I meditate on the opposite wall.
    It is pink, with speckles. I have looked at it so long
    I think it is a part of my heart. But it flickers.
    Faces and darkness separate us over and over.
     
    Now I am a lake. A woman bends over me.
    Searching my reaches for what she really is.
    Then she turns to those liars, the candles or the moon.
    I see her back, and reflect it faithfully
    She rewards me with tears and an agitation of hands.
    I am important to her. She comes and goes.
    Each morning it is her face that replaces the darkness.
    In me she has drowned a young girl, and in me an old woman
    Rises toward her day after day, like a terrible fish.


    1961


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