December 25, 2004


  • December 25, 2004

    Gunmen Kill 28 on Bus in Honduras; Street Gangs Blamed


    By GINGER THOMPSON





    MEXICO CITY, Dec. 24 - Gunmen thought to be street gang members opened fire at a city bus in Honduras on Thursday night, killing 28 people, including 4 children, who were on their way home from work and last-minute Christmas shopping.


    The attack happened about 7 p.m., the authorities said, in one of the poorest sections of the northern Honduran city of San Pedro Sula. About six men in a dark-colored pickup truck cut in front of the moving bus, which was packed with more than 70 passengers, and opened fire with automatic weapons.


    A spokesman for the Security Ministry, Leonel Sauceda, said 28 passengers, including 4 children ranging in age from 2 to 15, had been killed. An additional 29 passengers were wounded.


    The attackers left a large note taped to the bus windshield. In it, Mr. Sauceda said, the gunmen claimed they were members of a leftist guerrilla group, the Cinchoneros, which had long been thought to be defunct.


    The note cursed President Ricardo Maduro; the president of Congress, Porfirio Lobo Sosa; and Security Minister Óscar Álvarez, Mr. Sauceda said. It blamed the government's anticrime campaigns for the attack and warned that there would be more bloodshed.


    Mr. Sauceda said the government was investigating all leads. But he said most of the evidence gathered so far indicated that the attack had been committed by street gangs, known as maras, which have caused a devastating crime wave across Central America and Mexico over the last decade.


    The police arrested one suspect on Thursday night, Mr. Sauceda said. He would not identify the man except to say he was a member of the Mara Salvatrucha, one of the country's largest gangs.


    The suspect, Mr. Sauceda said, was driving a truck that matched the description of the truck involved in the shooting and was carrying a .38-caliber pistol. The truck was full of spent casings from automatic weapons, he said.


    Flanked by the ministers of security and defense, President Maduro addressed the nation on television on Thursday night and said his government would not bow to such attacks.


    "This is a barbaric and cowardly act like few we have seen in the history of Honduras," he said. "We will punish those responsible with the full weight of the law. "We will not rest. We will not back down."


    The police have estimated that there are more than 100,000 gang members in Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico. The two largest gangs, the Mara Salvatrucha and the Mara 18, were started in Los Angeles among the children of men and women who fled Central America during the civil wars of the 1980's.


    In a crackdown against gangs during the mid-1990's, the United States began deporting thousands of gang members back to their native Central America. There, they began organizing new groups, and their violence turned poor neighborhoods into battlefields. Two years ago, the homicide rate increased by 50 percent in Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital, the authorities said.


    In response to the violence, Mr. Maduro opened a crackdown against gangs - known as Mano Dura, Spanish for Tough Hand - that punishes gang members with as much as 12 years in jail. And he ordered the military to join the police in huge raids in gang neighborhoods.


    More than 1,300 suspected or convicted gang members have been arrested, Mr. Sauceda said. And the homicide rate has plummeted.


    "The gangs thought they were in control of the country, but now they are watching their members go to jail, and they are desperate," he said of the bus attack on Thursday.


    There was some speculation on Friday that the attack was revenge for a fire in a gang cellblock in May that killed 107 suspected members of the Mara Salvatruchas. A year earlier, another suspicious fire in a gang cellblock at a prison called El Porvenir killed 68 members of the Mara 18.


    An independent investigation into the fire at El Porvenir found that at least 59 of the victims had been stabbed, shot or burned to death by guards and soldiers.


    In the Chamelecón neighborhood, where the bus attack happened, residents said Friday that they did not know whom to blame or whom to trust.


    The attack occurred four blocks from a clinic where nurse practitioners remove tattoos from young men and women struggling to get out of gangs. On Thursday night, the clinic turned into an emergency room for victims from the bullet-riddled bus. On Friday, the nurses there were distributing tranquilizers to distressed relatives of the dead.


    "What do we think? We don't know what to think," one nurse, Suyapa Bonilla, said by telephone. "It could be the gangs. It could be the police. It could be some other mafia.


    "The only thing we know," she added, "is that no one feels safe anymore."


     


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December 19, 2004

  • UC DAVIS


    Linking Empires, Economics, Evolution


    November 16, 2004










     Photo: book cover for "Nature" An Economic History"


    Economics, history and the evolution of life are governed by the same underlying principles, implying predictable trends in all three areas, according to a new book by Geerat Vermeij, distinguished professor of geology at UC Davis.


    In "Nature: An Economic History" (Princeton University Press) Vermeij argues that competition for resources and the disproportionate success of stronger competitors drive both economic and evolutionary change. Human history and the history of life move in the same general direction: toward larger, more powerful actors that dominate their environment and its resources. But these large, dominant groups are also more vulnerable to sudden disruptions.


    Vermeij studies the shells of marine animals both living and long extinct. Blind since childhood, he works entirely by touch. His work on how shelled animals evolve to resist predators or attack their prey led him initially to questions about the "arms race" between groups of humans, and then to a wider perspective on how societies change and grow.


    "Whether our field is natural history, human history, evolutionary biology or economics, we grapple with similar phenomena, with growth and decline, competition and cooperation, economic inequality and the disproportionate influence of the rich and powerful," he writes in the preface to the book.


    Human society is still following rules established billions of years ago, and nothing suggests that we can change that direction, Vermeij said. But our ability to anticipate and learn may help us to find ways to survive without destroying our environment and ourselves.


    Vermeij received his bachelor's degree from Princeton University and a master's and Ph.D. from Yale. He is a past recipient of a MacArthur and a Guggenheim fellowship. He has authored over 160 scholarly publications and five books, including his autobiography, "Privileged Hands: A Scientific Life," published in 1996.


     


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  • December 19, 2004

    OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR


    Murder He Ate


    By GAIL BELL





    Forresters Beach, Australia


    WHEN Viktor Yushchenko sat down on Sept. 5 to his bowl of soup at the summer house of the deputy chief of the Ukrainian government's intelligence unit (the successor to the old Soviet K.G.B.), he may well have been supping with the devil.


    For weeks afterward he suffered a bizarre cascade of symptoms - prostration, crippling abdominal pains, a swollen liver and disfiguring lesions on his upper body and face-all indicative of a violent internal process that was variously described as an infection (possibly viral, and probably herpes) and gluttony (overindulgence in exotic foods). Mr. Yushchenko gradually recovered enough health to return to his campaign for the presidency of Ukraine, but the man who donned the orange scarf and stepped back up to the microphone had taken on the appearance of a scarred and bloated roué.


    And there the matter stayed, until Mr. Yushchenko's protestations that he'd been poisoned were finally investigated outside his own country, by a team in a Vienna clinic headed by Dr. Michael Zimpfer. When Dr. Zimpfer's findings were made public on Dec. 11, the world sat up and took notice.


    The headlines gave us two vital pieces of information: poison, which we all understood, and dioxin. Dioxin? It sounded like some sort of chemical; it even sounded vaguely familiar, like something you'd buy at the plant nursery. As the days passed we read everything we would ever need to know about the properties of dioxin, without discovering the answers to the deeper, more troubling questions of who administered it, and why. Not, why try to hurt Mr. Yushchenko, but why use dioxin to do it?


    It is curious and unsettling in 2004 to be reading about the attempted assassination by poison of a prominent political figure. Murder by poison has largely been relegated to the history pages, principally because science has overtaken the great advantage that the poisoner of old had over his pursuers: the ability to hide his work beneath the normal calamities that afflict human life.


    Death by degrees of pain and wasting could (particularly in the 19th century) be laid at the door of organic disease, and there were few if any tests for the suspicion of poison. In the 21st century the game is desperately hard to play, unless, as in Mr. Yushchenko's case, you apply the first rule of the old poisoners' handbook. Choose a substance that nobody can identify. Find an obscure environmental pollutant that infects the air around smelting and recycling plants and concentrate it into a small vial.


    Poisoning is not an amateur's game. There is art and a good deal of cunning to perfect before one can claim admission to the guild. Graduates of the old poisoning schools grappled with the same compounding problems as modern chemists and apprentice chefs in five-star hotels. Will the powder mix with the liquid? Will the oil separate into a greasy film? Have I cloaked the telltale smell under enough aromatic spices? And what about the taste?


    Our senses are not trained to discriminate what is hidden under camouflage. Studying the contents of your plate looking for odd colors has never been a reliable gauge of what is normal. Arsenic, for instance, is red, yellow, green or white depending on its chemical bedfellow. And what of poison's smell? Prussic acid smells like almonds, hemlock smells like a family of mice, oleander like chocolate, and arsenic in cocoa like supper on a cold night: there are no reliable pocket guides to assist the novice. To his wife, dioxin smelled like "some kind of medicine" on Mr. Yushchenko's lips.


    Poisoning is an up close and personal crime. The victim is deceived into swallowing a toxic dose concealed in a benign carrier like food or drink, thereby betraying one of the foundations of all social dealings between fellow humans, the assumption of benign intent. In Ukraine, the rules of hospitality demand that the guest eat and drink heartily at the host's table, even when he suspects the host of ill intent.


    As a matter of course in an earlier century, Mr. Yushchenko might have taken his own poison-taster to the dinner party at the dacha. Poison-tasters trained their wizard eyes on every stage of meal preparation, following each dish from kitchen to table to mouth - sometimes adding a little theater to their performance by the application of crystals and feathers, but, in essence, using the highest acuity of their native senses.


    I have in my own collection a poisoner's ring, which is hinged on one side and has a hollow compartment concealed under a large amethyst. With practice I have perfected a party trick of dropping a small piece of fizzing vitamin tablet into my dining partner's wine glass. It is surprisingly easy to distract someone long enough to flip the hinge, let the sliver fall and watch until the bubbles subside. How simple was it, one wonders, to slip dioxin, which is easily absorbed in fat, into the jug of cream destined for Mr. Yushchenko's soup, or, stealing from a later chapter of the poisoner's handbook, to coat his spoon, or plate, with an invisible layer of chemical?


    A chemist at University College, London, wondered why a peculiar substance like dioxin was chosen in the first place. "If you really want to kill someone you use cyanide or ricin or strychnine," wrote Dr. Andrea Sella in The New Scientist.com, "If you use something weird I guess it's just that much harder to find."


    Why indeed? Cyanide, strychnine, arsenic, and the extensive pharmacopeia of the plant and serpent kingdoms have provided the staples for poisonous intent for centuries. Cleopatra was an adept at empirical studies into the effects of snakebite on slaves. She is said to have found the mineral poisons too slow and too liable to cause grimacing and color changes in the corpse.


    Other prominent poisoners, like Madeleine d'Aubray (the Marquise de Brinvilliers), and the unknown visitor to Napoleon's exile on Elba, have found arsenic perfectly suited to their plans. The marquise took quite a shine to the poisoning art and, after practicing on charity patients at the poor hospital, endowed arsenic with its cynical alias "inheritance powder" (poudre de succession) when she fed her father and brothers her special soup.


    And here we circle back to the question, why use dioxin? There are many ways to classify poison. Arsenic and hemlock, for instance, are slow killers; they take their own terrible time. Cyanide and strychnine are quick though not merciful. Dioxin, we discover, is a slow accumulative poison, expressing its mauling effect on human physiology over months, years, perhaps a lifetime.


    What if the intention was not to kill Mr. Yushchenko but to injure him in ways that mimic a fall from grace, like superimposing the ruined face of an alcoholic onto a once handsome man? This is a glimpse, I suspect, into the secret world of chemical warfare, the successor to the old poisoners' guild, and even, perhaps, a peep behind the shreds of the Iron Curtain. Steady doses of dioxin cause cancer and premature aging.


    Dioxin, then, seems tailor-made to topple an Adonis from his plinth, which, for someone in the public eye is a kind of death. The sweet twist of this unhappy business is that the plot has been exposed. Mr. Yushchenko's face will heal with time. The same cannot be said for the disfigured mind that brought poison to the table.



    Gail Bell, a pharmacist, is the author of "Poison: A History and a Family Memoir."



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December 18, 2004


  • December 18, 2004

    EDITORIAL


    Interest Rates and Deficits








    Alan Greenspan did what he had to do last Tuesday, raising interest rates for the fifth time in a row by a quarter point, to 2.25 percent, and leaving little doubt that the increases would continue. But whether the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee will be able to stick to its self-described "measured" pace is an open question. Much depends on decisions that have more to do with fiscal and trade policy, the domain of President Bush and his merry band of weak-dollar-big-deficit policy makers, than with monetary policy, the domain of the Fed. That's because the administration's policies exert upward pressure on prices and interest rates, risking what a recent Fed staff report on trade imbalances calls "wrenching changes."


    The Fed has to raise rates because continued low rates would only contribute to a glut of dollars, further inflating real estate values and, eventually, other prices as well. At the same time, however, the Fed must contend with the inflationary pressures inherent in the administration's weak-dollar policy. The administration believes that it can rely on a weak dollar to fix America's huge trade imbalance, thereby avoiding the more fundamental fix of reducing the huge federal budget deficit. But a weak dollar runs the risk of inflating the prices of all goods, not just foreign ones, because as imports become more expensive, domestic producers raise prices in tandem.


    Moreover, the outsized deficits require huge infusions of capital from abroad, and that need could also lead to higher interest rates as the Treasury attempts to lure lenders to our heavily indebted shores.


    Against this backdrop, measured interest-rate increases may someday seem a luxury - and that someday could be soon. In a report issued on the day after the Fed's latest rate increase, the Treasury Department reported that money flowing into the United States - capital that is crucial to finance our deficits - plummeted in October to $48.1 billion, a 12-month low. It was the seventh decline this year out of the 10 months for which data has been collected, and that is a bad omen for America's continued ability to finance its deficits on the terms currently being offered.


    Meanwhile, higher interest rates hurt job creation and wages. A majority of working Americans have never participated fully in this economic recovery, now more than three years old. The need to raise rates before employment and wages have rebounded is another indication of an economy off-kilter.


    The Fed's attempt to be "measured" is imperiled by the administration's willingness to risk "wrenching changes." The wrenching change the country really needs is to move away from profligacy and toward a semblance of balance in fiscal and trade matters.



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December 17, 2004











  • MIT Dome MIT Engineering Systems Division nav bar


    News Item



    Elizabeth Masiello


    ESD News Archives




    TPP Student Betsy Masiello Named Rhodes Scholar


    Fifth TPP student to be so honored


    By Lois Slavin, ESD Communications Director – November 22, 2004


    ESD student Elizabeth (Betsy) Masiello has been named a Rhodes Scholar. She is the 5th TPP student to receive this award.


    Currently enrolled in ESD’s Technology and Policy Program (TPP), Betsy graduated magna cum laude from Wellesley in 2003 in computer science. She has worked for the Department of Justice and National Security Agency, and started a tutoring program while she was in college.


    Betsy intends to enroll in the M.Phil. in Economics at Oxford. Her longer term career goal is to work in the public sector, generating efficient policy solutions in the communications and information technology fields.


    "I chose to come to TPP because I had become convinced very early of the importance of multi-disciplinary work to the advancement of science and technology," said Betsy. "I couldn't imagine a better place than MIT/ESD/TPP to do this kind of work and I have absolutely loved the program."


    "In TPP, I have learned new ways of thinking about the world and have been introduced to exciting fields I had never studied previously," she continued. "However, the most striking aspect of TPP is the people. My classmates and professors are an amazing group and each has taught me more than I could even begin to describe. I can never thank them nearly enough for their support and encouragement.


    Betsy is the 5th TPP student to receive a Rhodes Scholarship. The others are:


    Caleb King, TPP '90
    Burt Monroe, TPP '90
    Anthony Staak, TPP 94 (who won from South Africa)
    Jennifer Howard, TPP '94


    TPP's founding director, Prof. Richard de Neufville remarked, "This kind of external validation of the extraordinary character of TPP students is great. TPP has an extraordinary proportion of the MIT students who have gotten this award -- far, far greater than our proportional share of students."























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        > Chapter Menu | Transcript Menu

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    Episode One: The Battle of Ideas

     

    Chapter 1: Prologue 3:55


    Chapter 11: Chicago Against the Tide 7:32

     


    • The present situation
    • Title sequence


    • Outside the mainstream
    • The spirit of Chicago
    • Harnessing economic forces
    • The Keynesian high tide
     

    Chapter 2: The Old Order Fails 8:11


    Chapter 12: The Specter of Stagflation 6:34

     


    • Meet Keynes and Hayek
    • The first era of globalization
    • World war and revolution
    • Keynes foresees disaster


    • Hayek in eclipse
    • Stagflation besets America
    • Nixon becomes a Keynesian
    • U.S. wage and price controls
     

    Chapter 3: Communism on the Heights 6:16


    Chapter 13: A Mixed Economy Flounders 8:36

     


    • Hayek explores socialism
    • The Austrian School's critique
    • What Lenin learned
    • Stalin's totalitarian plan


    • Britain under price controls
    • The "Mad Monk" repents
    • The grocer's daughter listens
    • Thatcher and Hayek
     

    Chapter 4: A Capitalist Collapse 8:48


    Chapter 14: Deregulation Takes Off 7:29

     


    • German hyperinflation
    • American boom and bust
    • Fascism takes hold in Europe
    • Can Keynes save capitalism?


    • America bogged down
    • The airlines and Panamania
    • Deregulating the sandwiches
    • Costs and benefits
     

    Chapter 5: Global Depression 5:26


    Chapter 15: Thatcher Takes the Helm 3:50

     


    • Roosevelt improvises
    • Regulating the markets
    • Keynes completes his Theory
    • Keynes's apostles in America


    • The Winter of Discontent
    • Hayek's birthday present
    • Shock therapy for Britain
    • The lady's not for turning
     

    Chapter 6: Worldwide War 7:00


    Chapter 16: Reagan Rides In 8:17

     


    • A victory for planning
    • Hayek's warning
    • Keynes at Bretton Woods
    • World at a crossroads


    • The double-digit dragon
    • Volcker at the Fed
    • Reagan tightens the reins
    • Tax cuts, deregulation, deficits
     

    Chapter 7: Planning the Peace 6:47


    Chapter 17: War in the South Atlantic 1:41

     


    • Britain seeks "fair shares"
    • Churchill's defeat
    • Labor nationalizes the heights
    • Communism's rapid gains


    • Argentina attacks
    • Thatcher gambles all
    • Victory's dividend
    • An economic sea change
     

    Chapter 8: Pilgrim Mountain 3:43


    Chapter 18: The Heights Go Up for Sale 8:08

     


    • Hayek's Mont Pélerin conference
    • Enter Milton Friedman
    • Democracy and free markets
    • A long fight ahead


    • Targeting state-owned industries
    • The economics of coal
    • Breaking the miners' strike
    • Socialism turned back
     

    Chapter 9: Germany's Bold Move 4:11


    Chapter 19: The Battle Decided? 3:26

     


    • The ruins of postwar Germany
    • Price controls vs. inflation
    • Erhard defies the Allies
    • The market economy revives


    • Idea politicians
    • The whole world watches
    • A century comes full circle
    • The battle decided for good?
     

    Chapter 10: India's Way 3:51

       


    • Nehru and Gandhi part ways
    • A science of central planning
    • The Mahalanobis equation
    • A socialist model for development


    Episode Two: The Agony of Reform

     

    Chapter 1: Prologue 3:49


    Chapter 12: The Miracle Year 6:57

     


    • A perilous interdependence
    • The capitalist revolution
    • Title sequence


    • Poland in crisis
    • A phone call ends the Cold War
    • Extraordinary politics
    • Watching the price of eggs
     

    Chapter 2: The Ghosts of Norilsk 4:27


    Chapter 13: Poland in Transition 2:39

     


    • Slow trains to Siberia
    • The gulag economy
    • The essence of Soviet power
    • Socialism's influence


    • Privatizing state industries
    • Solidarity loses support
    • The hardest hit had helped most
    • Poland's entrepreneurial drive
     

    Chapter 3: Behind the Iron Façade 8:18


    Chapter 14: Gorbachev Tries China 7:17

     


    • A double agent escapes
    • What Gordievsky knew
    • The true cost of military might
    • No water, no fire, no incentives


    • Yavlinsky's report
    • Gorbachev hesitates
    • Visiting Deng Xiaoping
    • No easy way out
     

    Chapter 4: India's Permit Raj 3:04


    Chapter 15: Soviet Free Fall 4:52

     


    • Central planning and corruption
    • Protection vs. innovation
    • The shortage economy
    • Hindustan vs. Toyota


    • Hard-liners strike back
    • The Soviet Union disintegrates
    • No one at the controls
    • The boys in pink shorts
     

    Chapter 5: Latin American Dependencia 2:03


    Chapter 16: Reform Goes Awry 4:26

     


    • A shared suspicion of trade
    • Doomed to underdevelopment?
    • Dependency theory explained
    • The cost of closed markets


    • Jump-starting the market
    • The old guard fuels inflation
    • Norilsk in despair
    • Belief undermined
     

    Chapter 6: Counterrevolution in Chile 3:30


    Chapter 17: India Escapes Collapse 3:16

     


    • The left wins an election
    • Allende is assassinated
    • An economy doesn't obey orders
    • Seeking a serious blueprint


    • Watching Russia go down
    • Bankruptcy ahead
    • Turning against the party
    • Ending the Permit Raj
     

    Chapter 7: Chicago Boys and Pinochet 8:16


    Chapter 18: Russia Tries to Privatize 5:33

     


    • What Chicago stood for
    • Cutting the tail off the dog
    • Growth at a high human price
    • A tainted legacy


    • Voucher capitalism
    • Bolshevik biscuits
    • Gaidar sacrificed
    • The Wild East
     

    Chapter 8: Heresy in the USSR 8:08


    Chapter 19: Loans For Shares 6:18

     


    • A campfire conspiracy
    • Enter Gorbachev
    • The pantyhose commission
    • New pressure from the West


    • Up against the Red Directors
    • Filatov of Norilsk
    • Fighting a Communist comeback
    • Yeltsin and the oligarchs
     

    Chapter 9: Poland's Solidarity 7:32


    Chapter 20: Closing the Deal 3:50

     


    • Thatcher's demand
    • The shipyards of Gdansk
    • A longing for freedom
    • The crucial meeting


    • This way or nothing?
    • Potanin takes Norilsk
    • Responsibility comes later
    • Russia defaults; Yeltsin resigns
     

    Chapter 10: Bolivia at the Brink 7:07


    Chapter 21: A Decade of Radical Change 7:38

     


    • Coups and hyperinflation
    • Bolivia confronts the tiger
    • Unreasonable amounts of money
    • Cocktails in La Paz


    • Poland begins to thrive
    • Mixed results in Latin America
    • India's new growth
    • Russia moves forward
     

    Chapter 11: Shock Therapy Applied 4:48

       


    • The bad news all at once
    • Common economic sense
    • The effect on Latin America
    • We did it in a democracy
     


  • December 17, 2004

    Kremlin Reasserts Hold on Russia's Oil and Gas


    By ERIN E. ARVEDLUND and SIMON ROMERO





    MOSCOW, Dec. 16 - On Sunday, Russia plans to auction the jewel of what used to be its most profitable, high-profile and well-run private company: the oil giant Yukos. And if the auction takes place, the winner most likely will be a financially opaque, government-run natural gas behemoth, Gazprom.


    Practically overnight, Russia and its president, Vladimir V. Putin, would create an energy company that not only controls about 20 percent of the nation's oil exports but also has some of the world's largest energy reserves.


    A Kremlin campaign that unfolded over the last year will have succeeded in dismembering the country's foremost private oil company, and it will send a signal to Russia's business elite that the state is back in business, literally.


    Yukos was created under questionable circumstances from the remains of state oil assets in the early and mid-1990's. On its face, the Russian government is trying to sell Yukos's largest production subsidiary, Yuganskneftegas, to pay back a tax claim of more than $27 billion. But the startlingly low opening bid of $8.65 billion, which the government set, was expected to tip the scales toward a state-friendly bidder like Gazprom.


    A ruling late Thursday in a federal bankruptcy court in Houston, however, raised some questions about the participation in the auction of banks that were expected to finance the deal. A federal bankruptcy judge in Houston, Letitia Z. Clark, issued a temporary restraining order intended to block the participation of lenders and Gazprom. The banks, analysts said, have extensive operations in the United States and might be concerned about ignoring the restraining order, which could put them in contempt of court.


    But Judge Clark's ruling did not apply to the government of Russia, and analysts said they expected the Russian authorities would go ahead with the auction on Sunday regardless of the ruling.


    The management of Yukos, in a statement late Thursday, said that while they were heartened by the ruling and would continue their fight in the American courts, they remained realistic about its immediate effect.


    Although two other largely unknown companies have submitted bids for Yukos in the auction, their presence was seen as purely an effort to make the auction seem valid. Foreign investors, including companies from China, India and other overseas energy investors, have been discouraged from participating.


    If the auction is completed on Sunday, Yukos will essentially die that day - a casualty of efforts by Russian prosecutors that came with the tacit blessing of Mr. Putin. The founder of Yukos is now being held in jail, the company's American executives are in self-imposed exile and its shareholders are out billions of dollars. Russia's actions have set foreign and domestic investors on edge, prompted capital flight and raising questions about the rule of law and how businesses will fare.


    Whether the Kremlin initially intended to dismantle Yukos, or merely to make an example of it to private business, is unclear, but a result, said Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, is "not outright nationalization, but creeping nationalization."


    Mr. Putin had made no secret of the fact that he views Russia's oil and gas, diamonds and precious metals as strategic natural resources - weapons in his nation's fight to regain its global economic status.


    For Mr. Putin, oil may also be more than just a strategic asset. It is a symbol of power and a resource that helped support the Soviet government, especially during troubled economic times. Thanks to oil exports, the Soviet Union managed to maintain the illusion of economic health even during years of stagnation in the 1970's and 1980's.


    It is also Mr. Putin's best hope of restoring Russian ambitions and presenting a facade of security.


    Only months ago, Yukos was the darling of Western investors and it was poised to become an international oil giant with influence far beyond Russia's borders.


    Gazprom is the largest natural gas company in the world, with a quarter of all gas reserves. By adding Yukos's oil assets, it will become one of the largest energy companies in the world by reserves.


    "The Kremlin wants to set the strategic economic agenda, and that means not leaving the long-term strategies and decisions about how revenues should be spent to private companies," Ms. Hill said. "The state wants control of the commanding heights. This is how Russia positions itself as a superpower."


    With a bulked-up Gazprom, Mr. Putin will take a leaf out of the book from China, Japan and South Korea, where governments worked hand-in-hand to champion certain industries and build successful corporate leaders. Mr. Putin was probably paying close attention when China's high-technology giant, the Lenovo Group, bought the personal computer business of I.B.M. this month.


    The Kremlin hopes to create huge world-class corporations in important sectors - what Vladimir Konovalov, a member of the Petroleum Advisory Forum, a lobbying group, has called "ship of state" companies.


    Sergei Bogdanchikov, who would lead Gazprom's oil and gas business, said Gazprom wanted to compete with giants like Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch/Shell and BP.


    Ms. Hill said it was even possible that Gazprom might someday buy oil assets outside of Russia.


    For American consumers and investors, the obituary of Yukos would be a symbol of what Russia can do to companies that have come into such riches that even the Kremlin is envious.


    Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, a little-known banker, took oil assets won at a controversial state auction in 1993 and developed Yukos into the country's most prominent and profitable commercial enterprise, worth nearly $40 billion a few months ago; it is now worth only $2 billion.


    Early on, Mr. Khodorkovsky fought bitterly with some foreign shareholders. But in 2000, he decided to embrace Western-style corporate governance practices. Yukos's value soared, and Mr. Khodorkovsky even sought a merger with a smaller rival, Sibneft, and then a sale of his combined company to Exxon Mobil or ChevronTexaco.


    The company did not become as visible as the Russian oil giant Lukoil, whose red-and-white gas stations are popping up in Manhattan and in other East Coast cities. But Yukos traced the arc of Russia's post-Communist economic recovery, with all the good and bad that post-Soviet capitalism offered. And Yukos put Russia on the map as an alternative to Middle Eastern oil - even as the campaign against Yukos helped push oil prices above $50 a barrel.


    Yukos and Gazprom are vastly different. Mr. Khodorkovsky, 41, had no experience in the oil business. But he salted the exploration-and-production ranks of Yukos with expatriate engineers, like the Joe Mach and Ray Leonard of the United States. Yukos sponsored Formula One race cars, and its headquarters in downtown Moscow featured open architecture and posters of Mr. Khodorkovsky.


    By the time it was a decade old, Yukos was Russia's top oil producer, with a global brand name. It was pumping 1.7 million barrels a day, or 2 percent of the world's supply. Mr. Khodorkovsky met with Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser in the Bush administration, in Washington; he visited Houston for energy summit meetings, and he pushed for Russia to start shipping oil to the United States.


    The production costs at Yukos were lower than those of Russian competitors; it was the first private Russian oil company to export crude to China; and it proposed building privately financed pipelines to Asia. Other companies have been less embracing of free-market practices. Gazprom, for example, still provides some employee housing, kindergartens and special stores for workers. It boasts in television ads that it contributes a billion rubles a day - about $35 million - to the federal budget, and Aleksei Miller, its current head, is a Putin loyalist.


    Mr. Putin, according to reports in the Russian media, was furious that a private energy giant was making decisions, and headlines, that were usually reserved for those in power behind Kremlin walls.


    Mr. Khodorkovsky financed politicians and parties who pushed his agenda in Parliament, like lower taxes for oil companies. But then, not long after he revealed negotiations to sell part of Yukos to a major Western oil company, Mr. Khodorkovsky was arrested and jailed in October 2003. These days, he goes to criminal court four days a week in Moscow.


    His lawyers posted a statement from Mr. Khodorkovsky on his Web site on Thursday, lamenting Yukos's downfall. "Such a turn of events is upsetting," he said.


    So does the state-sponsored auction of Yukos mean foreign investors are still welcome in Russia? Conventional wisdom is divided.


    Foreign investors are still welcome in the energy sector, but only in specific projects, and only on the government's timetable.


    BP spent about $6.5 billion buying half of TNK, Russia's No. 3 oil producer behind Yukos and Lukoil. But even TNK's Russian shareholders conceded that such a deal probably would not have happened in this new environment. ConocoPhillips took an equity stake in Lukoil this year, but it was capped at 20 percent - not a controlling stake. Companies like Exxon Mobil, ChevronTexaco, Shell and others will be allowed to invest in specific projects - perhaps Gazprom's giant undeveloped Shtokman gas field-but not to buy companies outright.


    "Putin is definitely re-Sovietizing" the oil and gas industry, said Michael J. Economides, a professor at the University of Houston and the co-author of "The Color of Oil."


    In Houston on Thursday, in issuing the injunction, Judge Clark granted a request sought by the management of Yukos, which took the unusual step of filing for bankruptcy protection in Houston on Wednesday. The judge based her decision on testimony by Bruce Misamore, Yukos's chief financial officer and an American citizen, who said that investors in the United States stood to suffer from the auction.


    Judge Clark wrote that "participants in international commerce, in Russia, in the United States and elsewhere, need to have an expectation that when they invest in foreign enterprises they may do so without fear that their investments may be the subject of confiscatory action by agencies of the foreign government."


    The expected demise of Yukos has rattled even the world's biggest oil companies. Lee R. Raymond, chief executive at Exxon Mobil, said this month that he was re-evaluating whether it was the right time to invest in Russia. Mr. Raymond said in a television interview Dec. 7 that the government's actions against Yukos raised questions "about how they are going to manage their natural resources."


    "Until some clarity comes to that, I think it's going to be pretty difficult for people to think about putting large sums of money in as an investment," Mr. Raymond said.


    All along, the Russia government has argued that Yukos was merely a tax cheat, and that auctioning off Yuganskneftegas, which pumps a million barrels a day of oil, was meant simply to cover the tax bill.


    But the sheer mountain of taxes the government claims seems to undermine that argument: Yukos now owes over $27 billion for the years 2000 through 2003 - more than all its revenues in some years, and during a period of record high oil prices.


    Meanwhile, Mr. Khodorkovsky's imprisonment has prompted other Russian business executives to wonder if they might face government actions.


    Igor Shuvalov, an aide to Mr. Putin, acknowledged this year that "whatever the outcome, the Yukos affair will be negative for the country because it harms its image."


    But the end of Yukos has revealed unpleasant truths about the absence of the rule of law in Russia, and has corrupted every institution that was dragged into the process.



    Erin E. Arvedlund reported from Moscow for this article and Simon Romero from Houston.


     


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December 15, 2004


  • December 15, 2004

    EDITORIAL


    No Bang for Our Cheap Buck








    The Bush administration's de facto weak-dollar policy - its preferred "cure" for the American trade deficit - is not working. Yesterday's trade deficit report shows that imports outpaced exports by a record $55.5 billion in October. The huge imbalance was worse than the gloomiest expectations.


    So far, the administration has been hoping that the weaker dollar will raise the price of imports, leading American consumers to buy less from abroad, and will at the same time make our exports cheaper so foreigners will buy more American goods. That's supposed to shrink the trade deficit and, with it, America's need to attract nearly $2 billion each day from abroad to balance its books.


    But the dollar has been declining since February 2002 - it's down by 55 percent against the euro and 22 percent against the yen - and the trade deficit has stubbornly refused to shrink along with it. The falling dollar has done nothing to diminish America's appetite for foreign goods - such imports continue to rise at a faster rate than exports. According to yesterday's report, imports were some 50 percent greater than exports in October. Much of October's import growth was caused by high oil prices, which have since subsided. But that's no reason to shrug off the disturbing evidence of the weak dollar's failure to fix the trade gap. The United States is now on track for a trade deficit of more than $60 billion next June.


    As the American economy heads for higher global imbalances, the need to borrow from abroad grows. And the more we borrow, the weaker the dollar becomes. That's because the markets that set the value of freely traded currencies, like the dollar and the euro, punish indebted nations by pushing down their currencies. The United States, by any measure - trade, the federal budget, personal consumption - is by far the world's biggest debtor. The need to borrow in the face of an already weak dollar portends higher prices and higher interest rates.


    How high and how fast? Who knows? But one thing is sure: that American tourists need to pay $5 for a demitasse in Paris will be the least of our worries if mortgage rates spike, the stock market falls, and businesses curb their already modest hiring.


    A cheaper dollar would not be as threatening if it was part of a comprehensive strategy to close the trade deficit. For instance, the United States must demonstrate to our trading partners and the currency markets that it intends to reduce the federal budget deficit - thereby lessening its need to borrow from abroad and reducing downward pressure on the dollar. Unless and until it does so, the United States will lack the credibility and the authority to press for changes that need to occur in other countries to balance out global trade. There are alternatives to a single-minded pursuit of a weak dollar fix. What is lacking is the leadership to pursue them.



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December 13, 2004











  • a NewsHour with Jim Lehrer Transcript
    Online NewsHour Online Focus
    FALLING DOLLAR

    December 2, 2004





    Falling Dollar

    Two economists discuss the dropping value of the dollar and the impact it could have on the global economy.



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December 12, 2004











  • a NewsHour with Jim Lehrer Transcript
    Online NewsHour Online Focus
    LAW AND ORDER IN RUSSIA

    October 28, 2003





    Law and Order

    The arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia's top entrepreneur and a government critic, has rocked the country's financial markets and fueled criticism of President Putin for being anti-democratic.

    Background

    Discussion

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    NewsHour Links

    Online NewsHour Special Report: Vladimir Putin Wins Presidential Election :


    Feb. 27, 2001
    A report on the tense relationship between Putin and the press


    Feb. 8, 2001
    U.S. State Dept. criticizes Russian government's raid on the nation's only independent television network


    July 27, 2000
    Boston Globe Moscow Bureau Chief David Filipov discusses Russia's privatization.


    June 14, 2000
    Russian Media Mogul, Vladimir Gusinsky, Arrested


    March 27, 2000
    A look at what the Putin era will mean for the Russian people


    Sept. 17, 1998
    Russia's economic and political crisis


    Sept. 2,1998 President Clinton visits Moscow


    See the NewsHour's coverage of the Conflict in Chechnya


    More NewsHour coverage of Europe


     














    News for Students:


    Global Cafe: Russian student Amurskaya Oblast talks about life in Russia


    Aug. 22, 2001
    The history of a Russian coup


    Jan. 1, 2000
    A new year, a new Russian president

     

     













    Outside Links

    U.S. Department of State: Russia


    The Library of Congress's Russia study


    The Russian Federation


    Russian Embassy in Washington


    CIA: The World Factbook: Russia


    Yukos Oil

     

    MARGARET WARNER: Russia's stock market recovered slightly today, after yesterday's dramatic 14 percent plunge. The financial turmoil was triggered by the arrest of the country's top entrepreneur Saturday on charges of tax evasion and fraud.


    Mikhail KhodorkovskyForty-year-old Mikhail Khodorkovsky heads Yukos, one of the world's largest oil companies. A former fuel and energy minister under Boris Yeltsin, he's today considered Russia's richest man, with a reported net worth of $8 billion. And he's used some of that money to fund opposition parties in the run-up to the December 7 parliamentary elections. He's also been openly critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government.


    Khodorkovsky's arrest added new fuel to growing charges in the west that Putin is becoming increasingly antidemocratic. Two weeks ago, the "Economist" editorialized that the Kremlin's targeting of Khodorkovsky showed "in Russia, the rule of law is that those who rule are the law."


    Trying to calm the markets yesterday, Putin denied any political motives, and urged an end to what he called "all the speculation and hysteria about this."


    President PutinPRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN (Translated): Everyone must be equal in the eyes of the law; a modest clerk, a civil servant, even one of the highest rank, as has now happened to a well-known former federal government minister. Everyone must be equal, no matter how many billions he has in his private accounts.


    MARGARET WARNER: Khodorkovsky is currently being held in a high- security prison in Moscow.

    Arrest triggered financial uncertainty

    MARGARET WARNER: For more on what Khodorkovsky's arrest says about Putin's Russia, we turn to two men who've written widely about Russia. Marshall Goldman is professor of economics, and associate director of the Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard and Dmitri Simes is president of the Nixon Center. Welcome to you both.


    Professor Goldman, explain to us why would the arrest of this one man trigger such a plunge in the Russian stock market?


    Marshall GoldmanMARSHALL GOLDMAN: Well, because he heads this company that American firms, among others, are very much interested in. Putin has been trying very hard to establish a certain order of stability. He talks about becoming part of the west. Suddenly to see this attack on a man who has been put in jail for at least about two months does suggest that there is something going on here particularly since Khodorkovky has been giving money to other political parties and is viewed as somebody who has been trying to make this company very much transparent, something that he did not do in previous years.


    MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree with that, Dmitri Simes, that this made foreign investors nervous?


    DIMITRI SIMES: It made foreign investors nervous because Khodorkovky is the richest man in Russia. He's in charge of the most productive and I should say most transparent Russian company. When the investors see that, to put it mildly they are confused. How long their confusion is going to last depends upon what happens to Khodorkovky and depends whether there will be an attack on other Russian oligarchs and whether there be an attempt to re-nationalize major Russian companies.


    MARGARET WARNER: Professor Goldman, tell me a little bit more about how investors see this. Does it make them worry that the rule of law is not really being applied here? What is it they're really concerned about?


    MARSHALL GOLDMAN: Well, everyone of the oligarchs has a black mark after their name. They have all been engaged in procedures and policies that were questionable. Some of them have said you could not operate legally in that era. So there's the whole issue that anyone can be picked up by Putin or Putin's successor because the reforms that were introduced were so flawed. And that creates... enormous uncertainty. How can you invest when you just don't know what's going to happen? Now, the likelihood is that-- and Dmitri suggested something along these lines-- that future investors will say we don't want to go there unless you want to look for oil because Russia has enormous oil reserves and there aren't many other places they can go but manufacturers may indeed have other questions about going there when they can go to China or Poland.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Putin's "authoritarian drift"

    MARGARET WARNER: Dmitri Simes, as you know Kremlin critics say this arrest was about a lot more than Khodorkovsky's financial dealings and that it was a sort of reflected what former CIA Director Jim Woolsey wrote about a month ago. He described it as Putin's authoritarian drift. Is there something to that?


    Dimitri SimesDIMITRI SIMES: No. In order to have an authoritarian drift you presume democracy. In Russia we have a horrible system of corrupt capitalism and this system since Putin took over was raised on two columns....


    MARGARET WARNER: Was what?


    DIMITRI SIMES: Was raised on two pillars. One security people close to Putin, people from the former KGB and another group the oligarchs. Neither of them was really committed to democracy. What you see today is these two groups are going after each other and Putin increasingly attacking the oligarchs. One point: The Russian press, the Russian TV have described what has happened to Khodorkovky rather fully. There is certain freedom of the press in Russia at least so far.


    MARGARET WARNER: What do you think about that, Professor Goldman, does this disclose his authoritarian bent?


    MARSHALL GOLDMAN: I would say he's got the authoritarian bent. I'm a little nervous about it. Actually I would take issue with Dmitri about this. The Russian state television on Saturday really almost hid the fact that Khodorkovky had been arrested. The state channels show almost nothing but Putin on the news programs and later on get into some of these other issues. He's recently in this connection with the attack on Khodorkovky, they raided the offices and seized documents from one of the opposition political parties. There is gradually encroachment on these things. It's not that... here I would agree with Dmitri that Russia was really never a full blossoming democracy but the oligarchs have learned that if they attack Putin, they are indeed in trouble and two of them have already been sent overseas and if you look at the other members of the associates of Khodorkovky, two or three of them have already fled and the rest are trying to become members of the Dumas so they'll have political immunity.


    MARGARET WARNER: But you're suggesting that it's more than the oligarchs who have to be worried here.


    Goldman and SimesMARSHALL GOLDMAN: Oh, absolutely. For example, the police, the KGB or the FSB, their successor, visited the school that Khodorkovky's daughter was attending and wanted the names of the other students and that has to be intimidating.


    DIMITRI SIMES: It's not a pretty picture. The only point I was making was that people were arrested under Yeltsin. The parliament was shelled by tanks under Yeltsin. Under Yeltsin, the oligarchs were given control over media empires at that time to protect Yeltsin. There was no democracy under Yeltsin. There is no democracy today under Putin. We should have no illusions. We were I think too benign in thinking about Yeltsin. We should not exaggerate how harsh is Putin in terms of democracy but to describe Putin as a democrat, I think Mr. Putin himself would probably laugh.


    MARGARET WARNER: Professor Goldman, your view on that?


    MARSHALL GOLDMAN: Well, you know, when he spoke at Columbia university when he was visiting this country a few weeks ago he was asked, how do you feel about destroying freedom of the press? He said well we never had it. I think that's too strong a statement. They never really did have complete freedom of the press. But in those days, the other oligarchs did attack Yeltsin over Chechnya.


    They did try to attack Putin over Chechnya. When they attacked Putin that's when their properties were seized so there's much less willingness today to attack Putin or do anything which would make him unhappy whereas it's true, the Yeltsin arrested some of these people and shelled the parliament and I think that we should have been much more critical of that but I think the people felt a little freer in the days of Yeltsin. One of my friends said under Putin fear has returned. I think that's the best marker of where we stand now.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Elections in Russia

    Warner and SimesMARGARET WARNER: Mr. Simes, critics also point to, for instance, what they say were rigged elections in Chechnya, sort of questionable elections for the governorship of St. Petersburg -- even meddling, they say, in the upcoming parliamentary elections.


    DIMITRI SIMES: Elections in Russia are rigged all the time. They were rigged under Yeltsin, they were rigged under Putin. Elections in Chechnya are laughable. Everything is for sale including political positions. Mr. Khodorkovky sometimes was the beneficiary of that. One reason they think he was arrested because he was asking several political parties, including a certain party, incidentally, to sell positions on their abilities, and he was trying to create his place in the Duma.


    MARGARET WARNER: Do you want to comment on that?


    MARSHALL GOLDMAN: I think Dmitri is absolutely right. Indeed the irony is that the Yukos officials have managed to put two people from Yukos on the communist party list. I mean it is an unusual form of democracy there.

      President Bush's response
     

    MARGARET WARNER: Let me follow up then with a question about what President Bush had to say at Camp David last month because some newspaper columnists criticized him for this. When he was meeting with Putin, he said that Russia was a country or, quote, "a country in which democracy and freedom and rule of law thrive." Is he giving Putin too much leeway?


    Marshall GoldmanMARSHALL GOLDMAN: Oh, I think so. Thriving, if that's-- I hope that's not the image that President Bush wants to see in the United States. You know, there are some of us who worry about homeland security becoming more like Russia. In that sense you may say it's thriving but by my standards it certainly is not. I say I have a lot of friends who are really quite intimidated now who were not a few years ago under Yeltsin and indeed in the last days of Gorbachev.


    MARGARET WARNER: But are you saying that the president of the United States should somehow comment publicly on this? Should make different views known than he has?


    MARSHALL GOLDMAN: I wish he would. The only thing I think that Putin might then very well say, look, some of the things you're criticizing me about you have going on in your own country, asking librarians to come up with the names of people who have looked in books. I would hope that President Bush would do it, and I'm a little nervous that the two of them have formed this relationship which is very much involved with Russian support for what we're doing in Iraq and in Afghanistan and I have a feeling President Bush is very nervous about doing anything to disrupt that, plus the fact that again we have our own problems with civil rights here now.


    MARGARET WARNER: What's your view of President Bush's remark?


    DIMITRI SIMES: Well, unfortunate. I kind of disagree with marshal that President Bush at this point should criticize Putin publicly. It is too early. I think that we have other priorities vis-à-vis Russia including terrorism, non-proliferation. You don't attack somebody like Putin today and expect full cooperation from him tomorrow. But to white wash Putin publicly, to praise him as being a democrat which he clearly is not and in my view does not pretend to be, I think it's going far to far.


    MARGARET WARNER: Dmitri Simes, Marshal Goldman, thank you both.


    MARSHALL GOLDMAN: Sure, thank you.







     


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